Thread: Confirmed with Link: Flyers Sign Sergei Bobrovsky
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05-08-2010, 10:51 AM
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Originally Posted by I am The Mush View Post
Quality of shots against will work wonders to diminish a goalie's save percentage. There is an obvious inverse relationship with that and the quality of your team. The differences in our perspectives and where this conversation goes is probably academic from here. Suffice to say, I think his team's play is a large component of how a goalie arrives at his svpct., though obviously not as large as the goalie himself. Also, 89.5% over the course of a season means your goalie and your team are both stinking, so I think your point is probably valid here.
Reducing quality shots (as a percentage of total shots) will absolutely raise a goalie's save percentage. The problem there is that you're assuming that there isn't a strong correlation between quality shots and total shots...which I'm pretty convinced there is. A team that allows a ton of shots allows a correlating number of "quality shots." A team that allows fewer shots, allows a correlating number of (fewer) "quality shots." Now, that isn't going to be a perfect relationship, but it isn't too far off, IMO. So, that means in comparing goalies the SVPCT statistic is significantly more level than the GAA stat within some measure.

I mean, look at Luongo:

Very little variance in his performance from Florida to Vancouver (his best single season was in Florida), and Florida was simply a DREADFUL team in front of him defensively.

Now the reason I think there's a strong correlation actually has less to do with defenses, and more to do with how offenses work. Offenses have their approach and take their chances in predictable ways. So, they are the ones actually choosing when the shots are coming (obvious point) and given that those choices are end up at having a more consistent distribution.

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