Thread: Proposal: The #7 overall
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06-03-2010, 06:49 PM
Boom Boom Anton
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Originally Posted by totalkev View Post
Wouldn't we be better off with two of those "15-20 surefire 1st rounders" than one?
It's a little bit of a guess either way. Is the chance of getting an impact player better by having 1 pick at #7 vs. 2 picks at 13 and 22?

For fun..let's take an historical look. I put in Bold what I think was definitely the better deal.

1997: #7 Paul Mara; #13 Dan Cleary; Nikos Telios. I guess a slight edge to Cleary..but not really any impact players.
1998: #7 Manny Malhotra, #13 Michael Henrich; #22 Simon Gagne
1999: #7 Kris Beech; #13 Jani Rita; #22 Maxime Oulette
2000: #7 Lars Jonsson; #13 Ron Hainsey; # 22 David Hale.
2001: #7 Mike Komisarek; #13 Alex Hemsky; #22 Jiri Novotny
2002: #7 Joffrey Lupul; #13 Alexander Semin; #22 Sean Bergenheim.
2003: #7 Ryan Suter; #13 Dustin Brown; #22 Marc-Antoine Pouliet
2004: #7 R. Olesz; #13 Drew Stafford; #22 Lukas Kasper. Slight edge to Stafford..but neither Stafford or Olesz are really shining.
2005: #7 Jack Skille; #13 Marek Zagrapan; #22 Matt Lashoff: Toss-up, but too early to tell. I think in the long run Skille will be the better choice.
2006: #7 Kyle Okposo; #13 Jiri Tlusty, #22 Claude Giroux: Toss-up again. I'd probably give the edge to Okposo personally..but I could be swayed. Tlusty to date is a non-entity.
2007: #7 Jakub Voracek; #13 Lars Eller; #22 Max Pacioretty.
2008/09..too early to tell

I see 4 cases where the #13 and 22 picks had clearly better results than the #7. I see 2 cases where it was the other way around...and 5 cases where it was close or a toss-up. What is interesting is that of these 33 picks, I would categorize 6 of them as real impact (or future impact) players: Gagne, Hemsky, Semin, Suter, Okposo, Giroux (and maybe Komisarek or Brown)

I realize that it all depends on the depth of the draft and how good a team is at evaluating and developing talent, but it is fun to look at. I think my conclusion is that there is no right or wrong in this. You might have a better chance with 2 picks in the first round of a deep draft, but maybe not. It is still a risk either way.

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