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06-22-2010, 06:08 PM
Dice on Ice
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Originally Posted by Brodeur View Post
It's a bit of a simplistic analysis, but if you were to rank all of those names, I think Versteeg would end up pretty high on your wish list. And by most indications, this draft isn't going to be like the bonanza that the 2003 Draft was.
This approach ignores two essential things:

(a) Past performance does not indicate the nature of future returns

(b) Draft picks are not valued based on this type of analysis. A GM valuing draft picks that way would get his clock cleaned by his rivals. If Versteeg is high on that list, then what's the value of Horton? The 4th overall, where he was selected awhile back? What's the value of Halak?

Here's a great example of where you get screwed like that: Ottawa traded San Jose's first rounder for Mike Comrie and Chris Campoli. Campoli was the centerpiece. After all, between 25 and 30, what's the shot at landing a player who would replicate Campoli's NHL tenure?

Ask Bryan Murray how he feels about that one now.

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