Thread: Rumor: Ilya Kovalchuk offer
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07-03-2010, 06:01 PM
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Originally Posted by Amateur Hour View Post
This is Paul Holmgren we're talking about, first off. Secondly, that would also clear enough room to sign Turco. Thirdly, the fact that Flyers fans might see this as overpayment probably means the value is pretty close.

Seeing as how Gagne's as good as gone and his contract is up after this season, the trade is more Carle and JVR for Ryan and something else. I think Bobby Ryan has a higher ceiling than JVR (and is only 2 years old), and trading Carle now while his value is at its highest wouldn't be such a terrible idea, especially because Meszaros was brought in and could replace him. If we can get Wisniewski or two of the Ducks' top prospects in addition to Ryan, such a trade would be far from overpayment on our part.
Completely disagree with you here. At JVR's age, Ryan was still in the AHL. I mean, JVR just completed his 20 year-old season. Ryan played his 20 year season in the AHL. JVR had to adjust to a longer schedule, largely played with a C who was defensively awful, did not get much PP time, and still put up a respectable point total.

Even big scorers put up a third of their points on the PP. So by that rationale, JVR could well have finished with around 50 points if he had gotten bigger PP time. Plus, break down the ES numbers.

Flyers ES point leaders at F.

Carter - 37
Briere - 36
Hartnell - 30
Richards - 29
JVR - 28
Giroux - 26

So basically, JVR was 5th among our forwards in ES points (and only had 1 less than Richards) even though he played 3rd line minutes primarily with Giroux (who I don't think should be a C) and Asham (good, but not an offensive dynamo). Then you also have to consider that Hartnell was riding Carter's and Briere's coat-tails, I don't think it's unreasonable to say that JVR was our 4th best ES forward this season (and the advanced stats do back me up on this one).

Considering he's still bulking up, hit the wall about halfway through the season, and has an insane skillset, there's no way I'm trading him right now, particularly for a guy who's been a professional player for 3 years and couldn't crack 65 points in his 3rd year.

I like Ryan, but to me it's telling that Carter got snakebit for a lot of this year, missed time, played with a horrible linemate, and still finished with only 2 goals less than Ryan did.

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