Thread: Rumor: Ilya Kovalchuk offer
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07-04-2010, 01:00 PM
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Originally Posted by Snotbubbles View Post
Leighton is a decent goalie. You can hate on him all you want, but he was really good for 40 or so games.
I posted a list of goaltenders in the last 2 years who played between 20-40 games and had a save percentage of above .910 who were journeymen.

There were 9 of them in the last 2 years alone and that doesn't include legit studs like Rask. I'm talking about Raycroft, Clemmensenn, Hedberg, etc. So let's not get all excited about a nothing achievement.

Kimmo Timonen was a -2 last year. Matt Carle was a +19. Are you arguing that Matt Carle is a better defender then Kimmo Timonen. Again, +/- is the most useless stat to use for determining defensive prowess. There are 5 guys and a goalie on the ice and any one of them could be the reason why a goal goes in. I'm not saying that Briere is a great defender. Just please, don't use +/- as a tool to determine this.
I mean, do you want to break out other tools? In 07-08. First of all, Briere's rating compared to the rest of the team was a -1.27. Next worst was Kappy at -.96 and everyone else who played at least 50 games for us was positive.

Second, his GFON/60 in 07-08 was a paltry 2.13 compared to a GFOFF/60 of 2.35 (we blew ass at ES that year in general).

Now compare to 09-10 when Briere was playing RW. Rating compared to the team was .44, second highest on the team actually behind Carcillo (who basically rode the Richards-Gagne line to that rating when they were hot and plus, that 4th line kicked ass early in the season).

His GFON/60 was also 2.84 (highest on the team among forwards) versus a GFOFF/60 of 2.08. So by every statistical measure (plus my own eyes), Briere's performance was much, much better when he was at RW. Sure he had a 20 game hot streak in the playoffs, but so did Fernado Pisani.

That's not luck. There's no such thing as luck. Luck is where opportunity meets preparation. You make your own "luck" if that's what you want to term it. In your example what happened last year is opportunity that the Flyers took advantage of. It had nothing to do with luck.
If you don't want to believe in luck, fine, neither one of us is going to convince the other.

If you gave Jeff Carter another 6 games based on his per game averages last year he would have scored 36 goals and had 30 assists. How is that not similar production to Ryan who had 35 goals and 29 assists?
The point is that even though Carter had the ********* season since he's had since 06-07, he still performed at about Ryan's offensive production levels. Plus, he plays a more important position, he plays PK, he wins FOs, and he's solid defensively. We know that Carter's ceiling is a 45 goal, PPG player.

We have much less idea what Ryan's ceiling is, maybe it's a 35 goal, 65 point player.

I mean, my original point was that Carter is a more valuable asset than Ryan and I stick by that. Carter had a crappy season where he was plagued by a horrible coach, bad luck, and a really ****** linemate (Hartnell) and he still equaled Ryan's production. What happens when Carter gets in an ideal situation like 08-09?

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