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10-01-2003, 06:37 PM
  #1
igor*
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Posts: 3,276
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50 points, the hard way ...

Well, it is that time of year when we all take guesses at how well the players will produce. Taking a stab at how many goals and points these Oiler players will create.

Which brings up a pet peeve of mine. I think sometimes we get a bit too optimistic, especially for guys who won't see much powerplay time. Sometimes maybe our expectations are a smidge unrealistic.

I've seen a lot of people peg Horcoff as a 50 to 60 point guy ... yet he doesn't feature on anybody's expected 1st PP unit.

These are the players who managed to score 50 points, at even strength, during last season.

Peter Forsberg _____ 71
Joe Thornton _______ 64
Milan Hejduk _______ 61
Glen Murray ________ 61
Pavol Demitra ______ 57
Zigmund Palffy _____ 55
Todd Bertuzzi ______ 55
Sergei Fedorov _____ 52
Alex Tanguay _______ 51
Mike Modano ________ 51
Vincent Lecavalier _ 51
Markus Naslund _____ 50


Its an even dozen. And two or three (Tanguay and Murray for sure) wouldn't have made this list if not for the fact that they were playing with star players.

It is a pretty impressive list of players, no?

And as much as I like Horcoff, Reasoner, Chimera, etc ... realistically they don't really belong in the same neighbourhood, production-wise, as the players on the list above.

IMO if Horcoff can be a solid + player, say +10 to +15 at 5on5 hockey. Sharing duty between the 2nd and 4th lines. And score 35 points at even strength, maybe a handful more on special teams, say 5 .... then that's a helluva year for Shawn. 40 pts, EV+/- of +12.

For Reasoner ... if he's facing tough opposition regularly this season, like MGM used to do in the past; then 30 points at 5on5, and any EV+/- on the good side of zero qualifies as an excellent year for him IMO.

And if Chimera can just become a more reliable player defensively, without sacrificing offense too much, I'll be really happy. 10 goals, 10 assists and a EV+/- of +5 or so ... that would be just great to get that from Chimmer.

Anyhoo, that's my two cents. It does make some sense though, no?

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