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07-12-2010, 10:49 PM
  #78
overpass
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I've updated the numbers on this through 2010. I won't post numbers for the past season because plus-minus is too variable as a single-season metric. Instead, I'll post updated career totals for a number of players who were active in the past season.

The stats glossary from the beginning of the thread is repeated at the end of this post.

Here are the top active players in adjusted even-strength plus-minus.

Rk Player Seasons $F/G $A/G R-ON R-OFF XEV+/- EV+/- AEV+/- /Season PP% SH%
10 Teemu Selanne 14.8 1.0 0.8 1.24 0.84 -123 232 355 24 74% 5%
15 Nicklas Lidstrom 17.6 1.19 0.83 1.43 1.25 208 513 306 17 72% 53%
24 Joe Thornton 11.2 1.00 0.75 1.34 0.95 -26 231 257 23 64% 11%
32 Keith Tkachuk 15.0 0.93 0.83 1.12 0.86 -109 126 235 16 65% 8%
33 Patrik Elias 10.7 0.89 0.57 1.56 1.12 47 282 234 22 58% 15%
35 Milan Hejduk 10.2 0.98 0.69 1.42 1.05 21 244 222 22 59% 13%
37 Alex Tanguay 9.0 1.03 0.70 1.47 1.05 21 242 221 24 47% 4%
38 Chris Pronger 13.8 1.01 0.83 1.22 0.98 -14 206 219 16 66% 54%
40 Mike Modano 18.1 0.85 0.69 1.23 1.03 19 238 219 12 62% 26%
42 Brian Rafalski 9.4 1.08 0.76 1.42 1.07 33 247 214 23 67% 23%
45 Simon Gagne 8.1 0.87 0.58 1.50 0.95 -15 193 209 26 51% 18%
46 Daniel Alfredsson 12.2 0.96 0.73 1.31 1.04 22 227 205 17 70% 19%
50 Jarome Iginla 12.5 0.93 0.80 1.16 0.88 -72 128 201 16 64% 14%
51 Pavel Datsyuk 7.4 1.01 0.62 1.63 1.12 36 235 199 27 55% 13%
52 Chris Chelios 20.7 0.99 0.77 1.27 1.18 161 359 199 10 52% 57%
53 Jere Lehtinen 10.7 0.79 0.52 1.50 1.08 30 228 198 19 41% 34%
54 Steve Sullivan 10.3 0.87 0.69 1.27 0.91 -38 158 196 19 53% 19%
57 Henrik Sedin 8.9 0.83 0.56 1.47 1.00 1 192 191 22 46% 7%
61 Sergei Gonchar 12.4 1.02 0.88 1.16 0.94 -41 139 180 15 77% 21%
62 Alex Ovechkin 4.8 1.25 0.88 1.41 0.88 -36 145 180 37 88% 4%
69 Dany Heatley 7.2 1.10 0.90 1.23 0.87 -53 120 173 24 73% 11%
71 Daniel Sedin 8.6 0.79 0.54 1.46 1.01 4 175 172 20 45% 4%
72 Paul Kariya 12.5 0.94 0.84 1.13 0.90 -64 108 171 14 78% 16%
73 Pavol Demitra 10.5 0.95 0.73 1.31 1.05 21 190 169 16 60% 8%
74 Jason Arnott 13.7 0.90 0.74 1.20 1.00 2 171 169 12 60% 5%
79 Marian Gaborik 7.0 0.91 0.72 1.27 0.85 -51 111 162 23 60% 10%
80 Mike Knuble 10.8 0.75 0.60 1.26 0.94 -25 137 162 15 37% 9%
82 Vyacheslav Kozlov 14.8 0.81 0.66 1.22 1.03 18 179 161 11 45% 8%
94 Brenden Morrow 8.1 0.84 0.60 1.40 1.04 13 161 148 18 42% 20%
96 Marian Hossa 10.1 0.90 0.67 1.34 1.11 45 193 148 15 58% 15%
100 Daymond Langkow 12.4 0.76 0.65 1.18 0.94 -28 118 146 12 46% 21%
105 Wade Redden 12.1 1.04 0.81 1.28 1.14 80 222 143 12 50% 39%
113 Sidney Crosby 4.5 1.16 0.88 1.31 0.87 -35 101 137 30 81% 8%
  • Lidstrom continues his incredible late-career run. While his teammates were much weaker this season, Lidstrom was well on the plus side of the ledger again.
  • Ovechkin and Crosby have entered the leaderboard. Both are among the best ever on a per-season basis.
  • As always, it's difficult to separate the contributions of linemates/defence partners. Some of the players on this list, while fine players, had a lot of help. Hejduk, Tanguay, and Rafalski are clear examples, others are more debatable.

Here are the 10 active players with the lowest career adjusted even-strength plus-minus.

Player Seasons $F/G $A/G R-ON R-OFF XEV+/- EV+/- AEV+/- /Season PP% SH%
Ian Laperriere 13.5 0.47 0.55 0.86 1.08 28 -85 -113 -8 3% 32%
Karlis Skrastins 9.2 0.79 0.92 0.86 1.04 16 -98 -113 -12 3% 51%
Ryan Johnson 8.1 0.28 0.49 0.58 0.90 -18 -139 -122 -15 1% 43%
Aaron Ward 10.2 0.67 0.79 0.85 1.08 29 -97 -126 -12 4% 36%
Donald Brashear 12.7 0.37 0.49 0.77 1.07 20 -115 -135 -11 5% 1%
Wayne Primeau 9.4 0.39 0.57 0.69 1.00 1 -136 -137 -14 7% 21%
Jamal Mayers 9.0 0.40 0.58 0.70 1.07 15 -129 -143 -16 1% 26%
Brendan Witt 10.9 0.68 0.87 0.78 1.00 2 -167 -168 -16 1% 47%
Eric Brewer 8.3 0.78 1.00 0.78 1.06 24 -148 -173 -21 34% 42%
Rob Niedermayer 13.6 0.54 0.66 0.81 1.10 41 -140 -181 -13 30% 29%

It would be completely inaccurate to say that these are the "worst players" or any such phrase. They have all had long NHL careers. But they have all been outscored by a fair margin while on the ice, for whatever reason.

Finally, here are the numbers for all NHL players who were active in this past season and have played 1000 or more games.

Player Seasons $F/G $A/G R-ON R-OFF XEV+/- EV+/- AEV+/- /Season PP% SH%
Mathieu Schneider 16.1 0.96 0.85 1.13 1.02 17 142 125 8 70% 31%
Scott Niedermayer 15.8 1.04 0.83 1.24 1.21 150 263 113 7 64% 40%
Bryan Mccabe 13.0 0.99 0.93 1.07 0.95 -32 68 101 8 56% 43%
Bill Guerin 15.8 0.77 0.66 1.17 1.08 47 144 96 6 51% 3%
Miroslav Satan 12.8 0.79 0.71 1.11 0.99 -3 82 85 7 53% 16%
Alexei Kovalev 15.3 0.84 0.81 1.04 0.94 -42 36 77 5 59% 11%
Mark Recchi 19.6 0.90 0.85 1.06 1.01 7 79 72 4 65% 17%
Ray Whitney 13.4 0.77 0.79 0.97 0.86 -84 -27 57 4 63% 6%
Brian Rolston 14.0 0.69 0.59 1.16 1.12 54 110 57 4 49% 32%
Darryl Sydor 16.1 0.82 0.78 1.05 1.01 5 54 49 3 40% 25%
Shane Doan 12.8 0.75 0.75 1.01 0.92 -40 5 46 4 44% 11%
Owen Nolan 15.0 0.75 0.75 1.00 0.97 -20 3 24 2 47% 23%
Adam Foote 13.8 0.92 0.83 1.11 1.14 82 103 20 1 18% 53%
Rob Blake 15.7 0.94 0.91 1.03 1.03 21 34 13 1 67% 50%
Roman Hamrlik 15.4 0.93 0.96 0.97 0.94 -51 -37 13 1 57% 35%
Radek Dvorak 12.8 0.70 0.71 0.98 0.98 -9 -17 -8 -1 20% 25%
Brad May 13.0 0.48 0.49 0.98 1.01 2 -9 -12 -1 9% 1%
Todd Marchant 14.0 0.58 0.64 0.91 0.95 -22 -68 -45 -3 14% 46%
Kris Draper 13.8 0.51 0.49 1.05 1.32 101 26 -75 -5 2% 34%
Kirk Maltby 13.5 0.42 0.45 0.94 1.16 47 -28 -75 -6 3% 29%
Rod Brind'Amour 18.5 0.80 0.82 0.98 1.06 50 -26 -76 -4 50% 45%

In Rod Brind'Amour's defence, he was basically even by this measure before the last two seasons. He's also had a major role on special teams throughout his career.

Glossary of Terms:

Seasons: Seasons Played. 1.00 is a full season. I prefer it to games played because it gives a 48 game season, a 74 game season, an 80 game season or an 82 game season the same weight.
$ESGF: Even-strength goals for, normalized to a 200 ESG scoring environment and with estimated SH goals removed, per game.
$ESGA: Even-strength goals against, normalized to a 200 ESG scoring environment and with estimated SH goals removed.
R-ON: Even strength GF/GA ratio when the player is on the ice.
R-OFF: Even-strength GF/GA ratio when the player is off the ice.
XEV+/-: Expected even-strength plus-minus, which is an estimate of the plus-minus that an average player would post with the same teammates. The calculation is described above.
EV+/-: Even –strength plus-minus, which is simply plus-minus with estimated shorthanded goals removed and normalized to a 200 ESG environment.
AEV+/-: Adjusted even-strength plus-minus, which is even-strength plus-minus minus expected even-strength plus-minus. This is the final number.
The following stats evaluate special teams play and are not related to adjusted plus-minus. I’m including them in the table for a quick reference to the player’s role outside of even-strength play.
PP% : The % of the team’s power play goals for that the player was on the ice for.
SH%: The % of the team’s power play goals against that the player was on the ice for.


Last edited by overpass: 07-13-2010 at 11:45 AM.
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