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07-14-2010, 10:33 AM
  #10
Ozymandias
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Habsfanatical View Post
5 seasons is a small sample??? 7 seasons if you include '02-'03 and '03-'04 when he played 28 and 31 games... I dont include playoff points in with regular season points and such because you arent guarenteed to even make the playoffs.

'05-'06 80 games 50 points down
'06-'07 81 games 80 points up
'07-'08 63 games 47 points down
'08-'09 81 games 82 points up
'09-'10 65 games 50 points down
'10-'11 ?? games ?? points up???
Your analysis is simplistic and ignores factors and context.

You can't count his first three seasons (8pts, 15pts, 55pts), as all young players gain experience, and it is usually an upward slope for talented players. You can't count it till he reaches his peak, which was when he first got 80 points. It is even more ridiculous that you label his first 50 points season as (down). The season he played before, he had 15 points in 31 games. His season of 55 points was an UP year. That's why you can't rely on a constant with his first seasons, as it is a constant upward slope. The upward slope went like this : 8/28, 15/31, 55/80, 80/81

I'll do like you and use a miror constant, and then it means after next season of doing 80 points, Cammalleri will have seasons of 55 points in 80 games, 15 points in 31 games, and then 8 points in 28 games, like so :

8-15-50-80-50-80-50-80-50-15-8

I used the same simplistic equation.

Then the two seasons where he gets less points, he's injured, that's CIRCUMSTANTIAL. It's not a down year in terms of play.


Quote:
I was strictly talking about how his points coincide with his games played..
It is silly to think that because he got injured in two seasons out of 4 since he reached his peak, there will be a trend where he does it every two years. It's not like we're talking of overall performance here, we're talking of injuries, something no one has any control of, including Cammalleri. It's even more foolish to think that because numbers coincided in a sample of 2 out of 4 in pairs, then it means the subsequent numbers, in an extremely complex system of variables, will repeat themselves, which, even in mathematics, is unlikely.

Quote:
If he plays a full season chances are he hits a ppg.. If he doesnt because of injuries or what not he averages less then a ppg..
Well, then you agree it's because of injuries, hence circumstantial, hence relying on a sample of 4 seasons, when 2 of them count injuries, is a waste of time.

Quote:
So if he follows the past 4 seasons and plays a full season he may hit a ppg which could include 40 goals.. once again.. knock on wood.. Weve been hit with the injury bug enough the past couple seasons IMO!
Some players play for many seasons without getting injured, and suddenly they start getting a string of injuries. Some hit a string in their first few seasons, but then go on to have many consecutive seasons without long term injuries (15+ games). It's a highly unpredictable model to work with.


Last edited by Ozymandias: 07-14-2010 at 10:41 AM.
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