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09-19-2010, 07:03 AM
Habs of steel
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Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Lorraine, QC
Country: Canada
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Originally Posted by Blind Gardien View Post
I think the point is that you have relatively narrow odds no matter what you do, so yes, it IS a gamble. If it wasn't you wouldn't pick Fischer and end up being wrong. And every team gets their share of Fischers. Maybe you're at 30% in general. Higher in the 1st, higher the further up you go. But it's still odds. And it seems like scouting and camps and training and all the evaluations and interviews only gives you a modest edge. Maybe if you're the best in the business you get a 5% boost in a given tier over your competitors? 35% instead of 30% odds? And if you just pick names at random off the CSB list, you don't do too much worse. So yeah, it's a gamble.

But there are some poker players who do better than others, right? Poker is a gamble too. Knowing the odds helps.
But like I said, everything is then a gamble. Martin might juggle his lines and be wrong 7 out of 10 times, Gauthier and Gainey in their trades, everything they do are gambles as well etc. My point about not believing in it is not to not understand that you can be sure of everything. Of course, they all think it will turn great for them and it might actually do or don't. What I don't believe it is using it to exclude those people from being judged. And this is the feeling I get around here. Timmins will have a job for life based on the fact that it's a gamble. Yet, we have no problem firing coaches and GM's while most of their decisions are also gambles to begin with.

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