Preseason Bill Guerin thread.. (Post #405 Guerin Released)
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10-05-2010, 11:19 PM
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: St. Andrews
Originally Posted by
Agreed, but from the beginning, my definition of inconsistency was not only based game to game, but also week to week and even month to month.
I think it's possible to have a hot streak for 2 months and fall apart for 2 months and be considered inconsistent, even though that's stretching it quite a bit.
It's really not. That's the definition of an inconsistent/streaky player. There's literally nothing useful about noting that a player (and players) have inconsistencies if you want to look at individual games. That's
why game to game statistics are utterly useless. They can't tell you anything because there is an immense amount of statistical noise due to the inherent inconsistency in play. You have good days and bad days... your consistency comes from the body of work in larger samples.
If I look at a player and see blocks of good play followed by blocks of terrible play... then you got an inconsistent player.
When you start getting into half seasons and full seasons like in the case of Coburn and Hartnell's recent season-long slump, it isn't about inconsistency. There are other factors involved.
Coburn hasn't had a season-long slump of the variety you're talking about. In fact, if you want to talk about him as a case of simple slumping, then it's really alarming because he's been on a downward trajectory in each of the last two years.
Largely because when he first got here and in his first full season he played a very simple game and deferred to Timonen a lot. Once he got some confidence and cockiness into his game he tried to do more, and that's where he got into trouble. Since that point he's never been able to maintain a consistent balance between doing just enough and trying to do too much... and it leads to him into a lot of inconsistency as he oscillates between having his game under control and losing control of it.
Hartnell, on the other hand, was just consistently struggling last year until the playoffs.
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