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10-13-2010, 10:37 AM
Join Date: Jun 2009
Originally Posted by
Yes, but you're ignoring the fact that there is variance in where you aim and where the puck ends up actually going. Sometimes it goes exactly where you want it to go, other times you miss by a bit in one direction or another. If you're aiming to the edge of the net, as opposed to the middle, that variance is going to take the puck outside of the net much more often than if you're just trying to put the puck on net. However, that same shot is far more likely to go in, because the area it's likely to end up on net is far more dangerous than if you just chuck it at the goalie's chest... and get it on net.
SOG is an overrated statistic if you're talking about an individual shooter in an individual instance. Alex Ovechkin misses the net a *ing ton, are we saying we wouldn't want him taking the shot for us in this situation...because he misses the net a lot?
The question you need to ask is the following:
what shot is more likely to beat a goalie?
It is clearly the shot for the corner, especially at the NHL level. That's the higher probability shot by a mile. NHL goalies are too good, and if you're trying to beat them with your shot... you can't shoot to the middle of the net, and that means you're going to miss the net a fair amount if you're shooting a lot.
It's the same thing with pitchers... is throwing strikes the goal, or is throwing
the goal? Throwing strikes, in that sense, is overrated. If you're grooving fastballs down the middle you're going to get slaughtered.
Anyone in the NHL can chuck shots on net... the guys that shoot for the corners and miss the net often, are going to be the ones accumulating lots of goals.
Missed shots leaders [forwards] (goals)
Alex Ovechkin 172 (50)
Brad Richards 142 (24)
Jeff Carter 141 (33)
Steve Stamkos 123 (51)
Dany Heatley 117 (39)
Ilya Kovalchuk 117 (41)
There is a direct correlation between scoring goals in this league, and missing the net a lot. Hitting the net (as a line of criticizing a shooter for missing the net with regularity) is completely overrated. The goalies are simply too good.
I know what you're getting at. Obviously shooting for the corners will cause more missed shots, but it's still not okay to miss the net a lot. Missing the net is never, ever a good thing. It's that simple.
I'm not saying I want Carter to shoot less or stop trying to snipe, but his aim could be better. Obviously it's not as simple as saying "I'm going to put the puck exactly here," but he could be much better. I mean, I'll take Stamkos with less missed shots and more goals over Carter any day, if we want to start getting into your numbers. He's the third highest on that list, but if you were to sort it by goals instead, he sure isn't. That's not a good thing.
Trying to warp Carter's inaccuracy into a good thing just doesn't hold water. Missing the net is missing the net, period.
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