Thread: Tidbits: Player Stats vs Expectations
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10-20-2010, 11:30 AM
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Player Stats vs Expectations

Okay, there are no tidbits and the title is weird. If this is useless, let me know, no hard feelings.

Last year, I found it helpful to gauge the offensive performance of players to last year, as well as looking at who was being productive and not, etc. This year, I'll try just keeping it simple and doing top 5 and bottom 5. If it's more helpful, maybe I'll add in things like ice time, stats per 60 minutes, etc.

Anyways, what I do is pull the offensive stats for the players this year and last year and make some comparisons. This lets us know who is doing better, worse, or the same. It's kind of neat in my mind.

Keep in mind early in the season things will be skewed. As it plays out, players average out hot and cold streaks and what not.

Top 5 Production:

Matt Cullen5358-10.601.602.00
Marek Zidlicky3134-10.331.331.67
Mikko Koivu524620.401.202.60
Martin Havlat505510.001.003.00
Antti Miettinen514510.201.004.00

Bottom 5 Production:

Chuck Kobasew5000-
Clayton Stoner2000-
Brad Staubitz400000.000.000.00
Eric Nystrom5000-
Greg Zanon500000.000.001.00

Most Improved:

PlayerPrev GPGCurr GPGPct ChgPrev PPGCurr PPGPct ChgPrev SPGCurr SPGPct Chg
Matt Cullen0.200.60204%0.591.60170%2.412.00-17%
Marek Zidlicky0.080.33333%0.551.33142%1.491.6712%
Antti Miettinen0.250.20-21%0.531.0088%2.224.0081%
Brent Burns0.060.40527%0.430.6041%2.212.408%
Cal Clutterbuck0.180.40128%0.280.4041%1.843.0063%

Least Improved:

PlayerPrev GPGCurr GPGPct ChgPrev PPGCurr PPGPct ChgPrev SPGCurr SPGPct Chg
Brad Staubitz0.060.00-100%0.130.00-100%0.510.00-100%
Greg Zanon0.020.00-100%0.190.00-100%0.731.0037%
Eric Nystrom0.130.00-100%0.230.00-100%1.111.208%
Clayton Stoner0.000.000%0.250.00-100%0.630.50-20%
Chuck Kobasew0.180.00-100%0.310.00-100%1.451.40-3%

Interpreting the Results:

The top 5 and bottom 5 performance is straightforward; I sort by points per game and that's their current stats.

For the most and least improved players, I take their performance last year (points per game, goals per game, shots per game) and do a percentage change on them. So if a player score 1 PPG last year and 1 PPG this year, there is 0% change. If he scored from 0.5 to 1 PPG, that's a 100% change. And from 1 to 0.5, that's a -100% change. That way, we can see ho is outperforming compared to last year and underachieving as well.

I added shots because it's interesting to see who's "snakebit" and who's getting lucky on those shots. Again, it will average out in a few weeks, so keep an eye.

Last edited by Jarick: 10-20-2010 at 11:35 AM.
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