Lowe's strength as a GM
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10-05-2003, 12:56 PM
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Wandering the globe
Originally Posted by
As a trader, imo Lowe is slightly above average, pretty good results for a rookie GM. But as an organization, they've been splendid at finding players.
At this point I agree with this statement. They seem to be doing an amazing job in other areas, however, including raising fan interest and the general profile of the Oilers. I like the job they're doing, which becomes fairly impressive when you think of how long Lowe's been a GM.
One interesting experiment is the Roadrunners. This is a team that will have a lot of Lowe's fingerprints on them. It might be interesting to see how well they do. If they do well for an effectively brand-new team, this might reinforce the idea that Lowe's group is doing a good job with the team top to bottom.
BTW, I know your post was NOT about Lowe's trading ability (although that appears to be the topic of the ongoing debate), but I'm not decided on that aspect yet.
One thing I think many fans may be guilty of is not being even-handed about trades. The way I look at it is there is going to be a bell-curve shaped distribution of trades: at one end, a few spectacularly bad trades, at the other end a few spectacularly good trades, and in the middle a bunch of even trades. There's two pitfalls that some fans can fall into IMO.
Not realizing the normal distribution of trades is normal. No GM will have uniformly spectacular trades. Demanding a GM make these consistently is just foolishness, IMO. In fact, most GMs will eventually have a trade history that approximates a bell curve shape. With good GMs, the shape will be skewed towards good trades, and with Mike Smith (dig!), it will be skewed towards bad trades. Right now Lowe's trade history looks OK to me, but obviously that evaluation depends upon how one views the trade circumstances and returns.
Picking out spectacular trades as if they were normal. So let's assume that the Yashin trade was a fantastic one for Ottawa. Not all are that good. In fact, very few are. It pains me when someone picks a 1-in-100 trade and says: "someone else got that good deal, why couldn't X do as good?". It seems to me that whenever there's a seriously lopsided trade, there's a GM on the losing side who is desperate and/or stupid. Its not always possible to find a GM like that. Its a little silly to blame the GM if they can't find one each time...JMO.
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