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11-11-2010, 12:49 PM
  #339
Jester
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cartsiephan View Post
Absolutely 100% not true. There are players who will raise their game during the playoffs and certain players who disappear all together.

Let's take player like Petr nedved:
playoffs= 71gp, 42pts, that is .59ppg
reg season= 982gp, 717pts, that is .73ppg

and Jeff Carter:
playoffs= 41gp, 19pts, that is .46ppg
reg season= 381gp, 277pts, that is .72ppg

and lastly Danny Briere:
playoffs= 86gp, 87pts, that is 1.01ppg
reg season= 666gp, 526pts, .78ppg
Dude, I don't really want to get into this conversation with you... it's like shooting fish in a barrel. Go out and read up on the topic... then get back to me. There is a relatively large amount of literature on the topic out there, and to put it bluntly, your casual acceptance of "clutch" existing based on superficial statistics is naive.

The concept of "clutch" develops primarily from two things.

1) What we can generally call sampling bias, which CannonGoBoom provided an example of.

2) The human desire to create narratives that involve heroes and goats.

The 2nd point is more a theory of mine than anything else, but if you ever have a conversation with a sportswriter that have an insatiable desire to place sports into arching narratives... which don't really allow for explanations like: one team was hot, and the other was cold.... **** happens.

Players don't really "step up," they play the same game in December that they're playing in April. There may be something to certain players games translating better to the playoff environment due to the way the game is officiated, but even that is terribly suspect... and even if that exists, it has nothing to do with being "clutch."

Over long stretches, players perform to their mean. They will have hot and cold runs, and if they have a hot run in the playoffs this allows them to weigh their performance upwards because if you're playing well there's a better chance your team will advance and you'll get to pad your stats even more (this is particularly true with goalies), whereas is if you're playing like crap you'll lose quickly and not bring your average down.

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