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11-11-2010, 01:26 PM
  #351
Cartsiephan*
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
No, it's all in your head... it's what you perceive to be true, but the vast body of empirical evidence (i.e. **** that is certifiably true) disproves what you just wrote. Sampling bias is what drives this belief... you watch a handful of games, create a fantastical story about how player X has the ability to step up in the moment and then he gets tagged with that for life (Derek Jeter is the posterboy of this phenomenon). For other players, they get tagged as playoff choke artists.

Joe Thornton doesn't step up in the playoffs. Lets examine that.

As an 18 year old rookie, he got shutout in the playoffs in 6 games. Of course, he also wasn't a particularly good player when he was a rookie.

He also got shutout in the playoffs when he was 24 and playing with cracked ribs... which clearly hindered him.

Outside of those two playoff runs, Thornton has produced 65 pts in 78 games. Now, 0.83 PPG is certainly well below his career 1.02 PPG... however, this is true of a lot of guys that rack up a lot of points off assists during the regular season; they see a drop. Pretty much by rule, a lot of the slam dunk assists you can setup against crappy teams during the regular season go away during the postseason.

Forsberg: 1.25 PPG in the regular season, 1.13 PPG in the playoffs.

Lemieux: 1.88 PPG in the regular season, 1.61 PPG in the playoffs.

Gretzky: 1.92 PPG in the regular season, 1.83 PPG in the playoffs.

Impressive numbers, sure, but you see a small drop off. Forsberg actually upped his GPG in the playoffs (0.35 GPG in the regular season, to 042 GPG).

Guys that have "struggled" come playoff time to this point in their career are likely to produce at a higher clip in some future playoffs (assuming they get to play), and guys that have produced above their norm in the playoffs are likely to produce less in a future playoff run. However, this is horrible language to use, because we cannot make a probability claim that predicts the future like that.

However, we can note that reversion to mean is something to be conscious of... especially when you're making claims about the mystical magic that is "clutch" play.



I have... and if you really think professional athletes haven't passed that threshold well before they get to that level, you're deluding yourself. If these guys were really "chokers" or whatever you want to call it, then they would have failed a long time ago.
I disagree with your theory or logic and being a competitive athlete through college have witnessed guys who can perform both during the regular season and also show up in the playoffs. We can talk excuses as to why a player and his team does not win the big games and he does not show up. It will eventually be time for Carter to step up and show he does belong because up to this point injured or not he has not done it. And the injured theory......most players going into a post-season are going to have injuries, nagging ones or more serious ones. Gagne was injured last year and came right in and saved the Flyers from elimination by his clutch goals.

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