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05-27-2005, 05:24 PM
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BigE
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Player Development - You can draft busts (or gems) just as easily as the Rags!

Time for another one of these, I guess: this is how the 2004-05 first-rounders turned out as of 2017 (note that this is a different game than the previous list I did.)

1 - superstar, multiple Hart and Ross trophies
2 - solid #1-2 defenseman, no individual awards but has played in a couple of all-star games
3 - looked average in the early part of his career and had some injury problems, then turned into an elite player after he was traded at 26 - 100+ points the last 2 years
4 - pretty good second liner, reliable scorer but not a star
5 - star, gets 50-60-70 assists per season playing with an 04 pick who's arguably the league's best player
6 - awful his first few seasons after being rushed into the league at 18, then had a 50-point breakout year at 24 and wound up as the winger for the #1 pick mentioned above, where he's been getting 80+ points
7 - struggled, still a 2nd-line player but whenever he puts up a lot of points, his +/- has been awful
8 - a bust, didn't produce in the AHL after leaving junior, still eventually made it to the NHL but has been a career 4th-liner, sits in the press box half the time
9 - 2nd/3rd line forward, although he's coming off a career year (55 points) at 30
10 - good #1 defenseman, was a first team all-star and Norris contender in 2012, but ran into injury trouble the next season and hasn't quite been the same since
11 - solid #1 goalie, not a star but in the upper half of NHL starters
12 - slow, steady progress through his early career, then won the Smythe trophy (and the cup) in 2015 and has been a star since then
13 - 3rd/4th liner most of his career, although he's had more points the last couple of seasons as his team has declined and he took on a bigger role
14 - looked like a bust, up-and-down from the AHL in his early 20's, then finally managed to establish himself as a #5-6 defenseman
15 - journeyman forward, with his 5th NHL team, never broken 20 points
16 - borderline star, but point totals are very inconsistent (ranging from 30's to 70's) from year to year and has been traded twice
17 - 4th liner on bad teams/minor leaguer, was even stuck in the ECHL for a while
18 - looked like a future superstar in his post-draft season, and his rights were traded even-up for an established NHL star, but turned into a massive bust in North America - managed 2 points in 19 AHL games in two years, spent the rest of his time in the ECHL, then went back to Europe where he's been mediocre
19 - an AHL star, has produced when he's gotten a shot at the NHL but defensive liabilities keep him from sticking there permanently
20 - 3rd/4th liner that seemed to fade early and spent his late 20's shuttling between the NHL and AHL before going back to Europe
21 - looked only so-so, developed slowly and was traded twice - then suddenly found himself on Detroit's first line and had a 50-goal year; the Wings were smart and moved him at the deadline next year while his value was still high, and he fell apart after that; back at the 15-goal, 30-point level now.
22 - solid 3rd-liner, dependable for 30+ points a year
23 - goalie, never really established himself in the NHL and wound up back in the AHL after his one season as a (bad) starter, back in Europe now
24 - good AHL player that hasn't been able to progress beyond 3rd/4th line NHL status
25 - bust, had a huge AHL rookie year but wasn't able to repeat that in the NHL, went back to Europe after 36 NHL games in 5 years
26 - complete bust, wasn't even that reliable a scorer at the ECHL level
27 - goalie, paid his dues in the AHL and eventually established himself as a mediocre starter/decent backup at the NHL level
28 - career 4th liner, has only played more than 70 games once but has somehow always avoided being sent to the minors
29 - slow-developer that came on after turning 25 and became a good 2nd liner, although he slipped badly last season
30 - outstanding offensive defenseman, the steal of the first round, reliable 50-60 point guy who's been a 2nd team all-star and Masterton winner

The second round had worse busts than the first, five guys taken in it are no longer playing. No real NHL stars from the late rounds, but a dozen plus guys with solid multiple-year NHL careers, and a goalie taken #153 that's been a 60-70 game guy for the last half-dozen seasons.

Some more numbers, starting with the better late-round picks from 2005-2010. I counted "late round" as anything after the #180 overall pick - based on the research I did last year, that's the point where the likelihood of an extended NHL career gets very rare.

#210 overall, 2005: 281 career NHL games, reliable two-way defenseman, Dallas's #4-5 guy the last two years.
222, 2005: 476 NHL games, offensive defenseman, looked like he was going to develop into a 30-40 point guy but tailed off after a 31-point year at 25
182, 2006: 293 NHL games, very defense-oriented defenseman, #6 guy for Colorado
225, 2006: 439 NHL games, good college forward that somehow slipped way down in the draft, developed into a decent 2nd-3rd line player
247, 2006: 493 NHL games, defensive defenseman, Flyers' #5-6 guy for several seasons
227, 2007: 277 NHL games, defensive defenseman with some offensive skills, #4-5 guy for Phoenix
233, 2007: 259 NHL games, big two-way defenseman and a huge hitter, slow to develop but has turned into a #2-3 guy with the Leafs
245, 2007: 472 NHL games, 4th line checker/grinderwho's on his 7th NHL team, but somehow manages to stay in the league
228, 2008: 466 NHL games, big 3rd line shutdown guy who has some playmaking skills, came over to Canada after being selected by the Leafs and wound up being WHL MVP in his final year and going straight to the NHL after that
185, 2009: 229 NHL games, forward who was up-and-down from the AHL in his first two pro seasons, then stuck and had a 20-goal, 40-point year, hasn't repeated that but still a decent 3rd liner
246, 2009: hasn't played in the NHL, possibly because he's making more money in the Swiss league than he would on a 2-way contract with Nashville, but is one of the best defensemen in Europe - all-star at the 2015 World Championships, 38 international games played for Switzerland
183, 2010: 108 NHL games, utility D/RW who'd been back-and-forth between the NHL and AHL until the Canucks made him a full-time defenseman, after which he put up 36 points in his first full NHL season
251, 2010: 60 NHL games, 25-year-old rookie surprise in 2016-17 after being signed by Montreal as a UFA - had been buried in the ECHL for three years by Detroit, who signed him after Nashville didn't offer him a contract coming out of junior
266, 2010: 169 NHL games, huge scorer in the lower Czech leagues who didn't come to North America until he was 22, then made the Ducks out of training camp...big guy who's turned into an effective 3rd-line checker in the NHL

Origins of the top 10 scorers and top 5 starting goalies (by save %) in 2016-17:

1. Drafted in 2004, starts the game in Europe
2. Drafted in 2005, starts the game in Canadian Major Junior
3. Drafted in 2003, starts the game in US college
4. Drafted in 2007, starts the game in Canadian Major Junior
5. Drafted in 2005, starts the game in Europe
6. Drafted in 2009, starts the game in Canadian midgets
7. Drafted in 2001, starts the game in NHL
8. Drafted in 2004, starts the game in Europe
9. Drafted in 2001, starts the game in NHL
10. Drafted in 2011, regenerated player

(that's a little misleading as to how well the regens turn out - 5 of the #11-20 guys were regens)

1. Drafted in 2003, starts the game in Canadian Major Junior
2. Drafted in 2000, starts the game in Europe
3. Drafted in 2007, starts the game in Canadian Junior A
4. Drafted in 1995, starts the game in NHL
5. Drafted in 1994, starts the game in NHL

Nice balance between existing NHL players and young guys/regens - most of the guys who are stars in 2004-05 are retired or declining 35-40-year-olds by 2017. The NHL isn't dominated by current superstars as long as in last year's version of the game.

And finally, the draft positions of the top 10 rookie goalies and top 5 scorers from 2016-17:

Scorers:
1. 94th overall, 2013.
2. 11th, 2014.
3. 2nd, 2015.
4. 16th, 2013.
5. 37th, 2013.
6. 3rd, 2016.
7. 13th, 2016.
8. 29th, 2009.
9. 54th, 2013.
10. 19th, 2014.

Goalies:
1. 50th, 2014.
2. 13th, 2012.
3. 109th, 2013.
4. 15th, 2010.
5. 86th, 2014.

I'm pretty happy with this - neither list is dominated by top-10 picks. Looking through the NHL rookies-of-the-year for the last 10 years, I see pretty much the same thing - high picks mixed with some 3rd/4th rounders.

-- Courtesy of my fellow HR, JeffR, over at the sigames.com boards.

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