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11-30-2010, 09:00 AM
  #75
Jester
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DUHockey9 View Post
I'm with Jester here.

Saying that he just thinks we are "lucky" is taking it to, as I've already touched on, an extreme.

Jester seems to me, to be a numbers guy. Regression to the mean is a real thing. I can't recall reading anything he's written and taking away that he's implying luck.

The ONLY thing, and correct me if I'm wrong, I can recall him declaring lucky is the Bob situation. And I would agree. Signing a 22 year old goalie prospect and having him run away with the starter's job in his first season in North America I think is lucky. It wasn't intended for him to do this. Everyone thought he'd need AHL time. If you don't think that's luck, so be it...but I certainly think it is.

And please don't turn that last paragraph into a bash on Homer. He gets all the praise in the world for signing a great goalie prospect. But I won't praise him for being forced to rely on that rookie goalie prospect. I will certainly continue to enjoy the Bob ride though.
Bob is luck from Holmgren's perspective... he had no intention of Bob playing in the NHL to start the year, and Bob almost certainly would be backstopping that terrible AHL squad if Leighton's back hadn't blown up (of course, if we were getting .900 goaltending and Bob was posting a .930+ in the AHL, he might be here by now...). Certainly gets credit for signing a prospect... but I've always said I love his scouting eye.

What I find remarkable is the inability of some to grasp that some paces are unsustainable (both good and bad). Players have runs of both good and bad luck and it affects their production rates. O'Donnell and Meszaros, for example, have gotten quite lucky this year in when goals are finding their way past the goalies. Carle--who I'm not a huge fan of--has been unlucky defensively, IMO (worst GAON/60 on the team at 2.69), but also quite lucky the other way (3.74 GFON/60). Last year his numbers were 2.15 GAON and 2.90 GFON...

Based on watching him, I wouldn't have suspected Carle was getting burned that badly defensively without looking at the numbers.

And regression to mean is absolutely real, and far too many don't seem to grasp this conceptually.

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