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12-02-2010, 11:05 AM
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Originally Posted by vera1964 View Post
Probably. But not really.

Any play that increases the chance of goal for (no matter how it increases the probability of goal against) is a smart play when trailing two-nothing with two mins left.
So, you think a drop pass at the opposing teams blue line with the defense well organized in front of you (and your teammates are not expecting a drop pass) increased the probability of a goal for there?

However, I'll play along. Lets say the drop pass improved the chance of the Flyers scoring on that rush by 1% (I think that's generous). It improved the chance of a goal against by about 99%... as a turnover there pretty much guaranteed a goal against if the Bruins hit the net.

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