Potential Christmas Storm
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12-20-2010, 10:09 PM
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Burbank, CA
Originally Posted by
Oh absolutely. I didn't mean to sound bullish at all, and if I did, I apologize, but I'm generalizing NJ/PA/NY/LI/CT. Obviously could be a big swing in terms of anything between those areas.
12z Euro yesterday buried us. GGEM as well. Model support was there for high totals, but has since backed off. 12Z GFS was a bit high on the QPF. Was just stating that the "potential" for 1-2 feet is there, but not likely. A snowstorm is more likely than a no-storm right now, so just threw that out there.
Regardless, I agree with all except the moisture comment. GFS will always underplay the QPF, as well as a lot of the longer range models. You don't have a 980-995 mb low coming off of NC/VA/MD spitting out .25-.50 while passing the benchmark. I'm pretty sure that if,
A) We get phasing to occur we'll have plenty of moisture to work with. Of course the timing of this will effect who and how much each area gets (Mid Atlantic needs it to phase earlier, if it phases later, the NE will get the bulk of the high precip), but that of course is to be seen.
B) The ridging out west is being underplayed by some of the models. The trend I've been seeing today is that the models have been underplaying the trof and have been moving towards a more neutral to slightly negative tilt rather than a flat-wave moving across the country.
But, again, just my opinion. For those that missed me saying it above, the -Threat- is there, for a MECS/SECS (Major/Significant East Coast Storm), but it's quite a ways out. At this point, it's more likely we're looking at a moderate-small event in some-way shape or form, or a miss.
The EURO also had a track right to the BM(Bench Mark) soutH or se of cape cod and it too was moisture starved...only spitting around 0.50" of QPF(Liquid) for NYC.
This can easily change tho...we're 5 days out...in fact the GFS seems to be coming in more amped....the s/w is slower and might allow enough time to phase.
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