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01-24-2011, 10:09 AM
  #47
zeus3007*
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Red Deer, Alberta
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alberta_OReilly_Fan View Post
im anticipating someone will tell me my study means nothing cause i dont account for what teams get when they trade first round picks... but that is actually the point of my entire study here

the posters on this site... and media too in the real world... and even many gms i think, all believe now that the only way to success is to have top picks leading your team.

they probably think this because pittsburg and chicago happened to win the last 2 cups with top picks.

yes i know

but many many many teams get top picks and never win the cup. pittsburg got lucky and drafted the best player the game has seen since lemieux/gretzky retired. there is only 1 crosby. they also happened to draft whitney and fleury and malkin and staal in back to back to back to back to back years. no other team has any type of record to compare to this.

chicago meanwhile had a couple ufa signings that probably helped as much as their two top picks did. they also broke the nhl rules by basically overspending around 15% cap space to get a single season out of a super loaded lineup. im not sure that winning a cup when you have 15% more spending being done then anyone else, is actually a way most teams would want to pattern themselves after to try to win too.

chicago won... no one can take that away from them... but having to give away versteeg, byfuglin, ladd, and 3-4 other key depth pieces was a very very steep price to pay and they are in a very realistic danger of missing the playoffs this year.

other teams that won a cup led by draft picks {anaheim. carolina, tampa] had very short runs at the top and missed the playoffs the next year too.

I dont deny that having a top number 1 pick is a good thing... and most number 2s are pretty decent too... but teams that think they will be powerhouses every year after getting one or two of these guys drafted are just dreaming.

all this parinoia about trading a pick and regretting it forever is crazy. you will regret trading a pick if you make a bad trade. if you trade a pick for Tom Kurvers and the pick turns into Scott Nidermayer then you will regret it. You always regret making bad trades.

but if you trade a pick that is a bust and the guy you trade for turns out to be dustin byfuglin, then you dont regret it. Making good trades even if they involve draft picks are what you never regret.

sometimes its hard to tell if you should regret trading away picks/prospects or not. Calgary moved Bret Hull to win a cup. Hull went on to be one of the top 10 scorers in NHL history. Maybe Flame fans would have enjoyed him in Calgary more then the cup? I cant say... its not always 100% clear cut.

It is however very very very possible to trade a top 10 pick and actually win the trade. most top 10 picks are going to be second liners at best... if you trade one for a second liner now, there is at least a 50-50 chance you will break even on the trade.

im not saying to trade number 1 or number 2 picks... but in most years, you can safely trade away a 9 or a 10 pick for a rental and end up being ok. getting value for the pick.

specially if you resign the rental. good ufa signings are just as valuable as good drafting is.
I'm not commenting on everything you said, just the bolded part. Drafting is only part of the process, but if your team doesn't draft well, they won't do well (look at Columbus, Florida as the best examples). But if you don't develop your own players, you won't be a contender either. Its a combination of drafting, developing AND making the key UFA signing or trade to polish off your team. Detroit, the most successful team of the past ten years, built their core with the draft (no top tens, which shows how amazing their scouting is), but without world class player development, their guys probably wouldn't have reached top potential. And making the key moves to add depth guys like Rafalski, Brad Stuart and Dan Cleary just put them over the top. I don't think its that GM's think that the only way to be successful is by drafting, but I do think that they look at Detroit, and see a team that has built its core without UFA and trades, and that is what teams are trying to copy.

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