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01-31-2011, 03:50 PM
  #260
Jester
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DrinkFightFlyers View Post
That's fine if that is how they evaluate players, but what I am talking about is that the bulk of the guys in A are 4-5 years away if at all. Sure there are guys who may be quicker, but outside of the real blue chip guys like Brown, Harper, and Strasburg, you can't really tell. Sure, you can say Guy X has quality Y and Z and that makes him a future impact player, but in baseball these guys are so young that there is really no way to be sure outside of the obvious ones like those I mentioned.

It isn't like hockey where if you are dominating somewhere in the CHL scoring 3 points per game, you can safely say that that player will be a force or at least a regular in the NHL some day soon. Or in football or basketball where if they kill it in NCAA for the most part, they are going to do well in the pros. In baseball you are going pretty much 100% on potential when you are talking about guys in the A level. I'm sure there are guys in A that are batting .340 and hitting 20 hrs that will never make it to the big leagues and guys who have yet to step on the field in A who have amazing potential that will never come close to being reached. All I'm saying is I am not banking on a guy in A to be a part of this club any time soon. They could be, of course, but I would not be counting on it.

EDIT: Just as an example, Carlos Corrasco was ranked #28 in MLB.com's list and #41 on Baseball America's list. He has not played in the majors and likely won't any time soon (at least on a regular basis). Many of the players on the list have made it and have made it well, but there are a lot who have not made it yet either from that list.

http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/m...s/top50/y2008/
...no one is saying that. But 4-5 years is a bit too conservative if these guys are going to make it.

Kyle Drabek, for example, had Tommy John surgery and still made it to the majors in a shorter window than you're putting out there as far as what to expect.

MLB players develop quicker than you're making it out they do. They aren't spending 5 years from A ball to MLB. If they do, that probably means they've stalled somewhere and the chances of them hacking are greatly diminished.

BTW, Carrasco pitched in the majors in each of the last two seasons. He threw 22 innings in 2009, and 44 innings last year. He was 19 when he had his first full season at Lakewood... 3 years later he pitched in the majors.

Of course, I also think age is a big factor independent of when a player is in A ball. If you're not ready/able to be competing for a MLB roster spot by the time you're 23, then alarm bells are beginning to ring on your career. You don't have to be a good MLB player at that point, but you need to be good enough that you're in the discussion.

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