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01-31-2011, 10:29 PM
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Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Regina, SK
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Originally Posted by BraveCanadian View Post
I actually meant that to just be some ribbing, I'm sorry I didn't add on some smiley to make that more obvious.
OK. Cheers.

However, it hasn't done anything to debunk my "theory".

If anything caveats like the Dead Wings possibly having an easier time scoring than the highest scoring dynasty in the history of the game have me questioning how relative team strength should be accounted for in all these adjustments people are routinely doing.
There's a difference between being on a good team that still gets to play all the teams that other teams play against, and being in a divisional playoff system where every year you get to play against weaker sisters than other comparably strong teams get to play.

I'm not moving the goalposts, you're just equating playoff performance with scoring. I'm talking about playoff performance including scoring.
I am only equating playoff performance with scoring because their average defensive value throughout their careers were pretty much equal.

I know you put a lot of stock into the numbers and put a lot of effort here into trying to estimate their totals, but there are so many variables that aren't even captured in the raw data it is hopeless to adjust and average and then stake a definitive claim either way. (in my opinion)
Nothing is ever conclusive. It's all just a small piece of a big puzzle. In this case you presented two very good points about why raw numbers don't work, and my work got us closer to the truth, not further.

If we take them at face value and we're saying Messier was estimated to be scoring at 1.07PPG with your normalization and Yzerman was at 1PPG then I'd say since the majority of Yzerman's playoff games came after he was a defensive stalwart that their playoff performance was fairly close, no?
I dunno, where would you put the cutoff? 1996? Because it's about a 40/60 breakdown if that's the cutoff. Messier did have years that he was not good defensively, but in those years he didn't make the playoffs. It's still fair to say that overall, their playoff defensive performances have been equal.

Not sure if it has any value, (I'm sure it wouldn't if it was at all close), but Messier's career playoff +/- is +51; Yzerman's is -11.

Originally Posted by hungryhungryhippy View Post
Okay, I sort of cheated

I went to his profile to see if he was online, and saw him viewing the 196X-198X Save percentage thread haha
That's some nice detective work.

Originally Posted by Hedberg View Post
I'm happy to see Dryden be the next goalie selected.

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