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07-13-2005, 05:01 PM
  #1
Potted Plant
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Join Date: May 2003
Location: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Statistical programming

OK, I did some statistical programming and came up with the following results. If TSN is right about how the lottery will go, the Rangers' percentages of getting a particular pick are as follows:

1 6.1545
2 6.0535
3 5.895
4 5.671
5 5.516
6 5.439
7 5.3185
8 5.0285
9 4.865
10 4.765
11 4.4885
12 4.1545
13 4.0665
14 3.8075
15 3.617
16 3.5475
17 3.198
18 2.8485
19 2.6625
20 2.461
21 2.2215
22 1.996
23 1.6375
24 1.3265
25 1.1365
26 0.8215
27 0.6025
28 0.3915
29 0.2265
30 0.0825

Our chances of getting a position at or above a certain pick are as follows:

1 6.1545
2 12.208
3 18.103
4 23.774
5 29.29
6 34.729
7 40.0475
8 45.076
9 49.941
10 54.706
11 59.1945
12 63.349
13 67.4155
14 71.223
15 74.84
16 78.3875
17 81.5855
18 84.434
19 87.0965
20 89.5575
21 91.779
22 93.775
23 95.4125
24 96.739
25 97.8755
26 98.697
27 99.2995
28 99.691
29 99.9175
30 100

As you can see, there is a 50/50 shot will we get the 9th pick or better, and a 10% chance of getting in the bottom 10. Our chances of getting 20 or worse are actually better than our chances of getting #1, but them's the breaks.

Hope you like it. I worked for like an hour on this.

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