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02-06-2011, 08:53 PM
  #56
Hockeypete49
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
As noted in this thread, a lot of guys put up high point totals right out of the lockout when teams hadn't adjusted defensively to the new rules, and the officials hadn't begun to slacken off the crackdown.

Alfredsson, for example, posted 103 pts... well outside his career norm in '05-'06. Since then scoring has gone down in each subsequent year, I believe.

If we got back to the officiating the first couple years (especially the first) after the lockout, we'd have a few guys with a chance.



When you're 27/28 you're on the tail end of your offensive prime. Offensive production is a young man's game.

Gretzky's best single offensive season (PPG) came when he was 23 years old. His peak offensive years were 21-27, with a notable tail off in per game production after that, registering his final 2.00+ PPG season when he was 30.

Lemieux followed a similar pattern.

Yzerman's best offensive season? 23. Never topped 100 pts after the age of 27.

Player in the 90s, Joe Sakic. 6 1.20+ PPG seasons prior to the age of 28 (9 total), 4 the rest of his career (11 total) -- and 2 of those were in his 29 and 30 year old season.

23 is young, and Giroux is going to have a long career ahead of him. However, if you want to talk about Giroux and point production, the fact of the matter is that he isn't young. Young guys are the ones that put up points in this league.

Top 10 in Scoring last year
Henrik Sedin 29
Sidney Crosby 22
Alex Ovechkin 24
Nicklas Backstrom 22
Steven Stamkos 20
Martin St Louis 34
Brad Richards 29
Joe Thornton 30
Patrick Kane 22
Marian Gaborik 27

This stuff is important to understand, because it's the very reason contracts like the one Ilya Kovalchuk signed are completely asinine. Kovalchuk has been an offensive force in this league for years now, but signing him for 27 y/o forward isn't a great deal because he's very likely to see a decline over the next few years (I think this year is an outlier). Goal scoring in particular does not tend to age all that well. Hull posted 5 straight 50+ goal season 25-29, and would have had another when he was 30 in the lockout shortened season. Never sniffed 50 again, and broke 40 only twice.

After the mid 20s good offensive players remain good, but they tend not to be the player you saw when they were, say, 23.
So the average age of the top ten was 26. G is into his 1st month as a 23 year old. He will play half of next season as a 23 year old. This is only his second full season as a pro. I like his chances of improving on his point production for years to come.

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