View Single Post
02-07-2011, 03:57 PM
Student Of The Game
seventieslord's Avatar
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Regina, SK
Country: Canada
Posts: 30,940
vCash: 500
Originally Posted by hungryhungryhippy View Post
Interesting, where does that information come from? And I'm assuming those totals are amongst all Canadiens' Skaters (or is it the NHL and/or just defensemen?)
It's from a spreadsheet that I have. It's based on the GF/GA. Based on the situational totals and the time that the team spent in each situation, a complex model is able to determine the players' icetime going back to 1968 with reasonable accuracy. (I thought the correlation between the model and real results was 90% but someone corrected me the other day on the HOH board and said it was 94%.)

Who was responsible for it? I forget. I think it was one of those stats bigwigs, like Alan Ryder or Ian Fyffe... if not them, then someone who runs with that crowd.

Those were based on on Montreal only, however, in the four years that he was their #1 he was very close to the top of the league:

1968: 1st
1969: 1st
1971: 2nd (orr)
1972: 5th

Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
That just doesn't add up to me. How can he go from their #1 guy to their #5 for just one season?

Edit: Oh, he was injured in 1970. Is that TOI per game or TOI total?
That is TOI per game. He likely played less per game when he was healthy. Or he may have played a lot less per game in games where he was just coming back from injury, or playing hurt.

If he did in fact play #1 minutes and the model's not recording it, it means that a crapload of expected goals, both for and against, did not happen.

seventieslord is online now