ATD 2011 Draft Thread III
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02-07-2011, 03:58 PM
Hawkey Town 18
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Chicago, IL
Originally Posted by
the problem with that line of thinking is that it implies by being in that spot on the roster, they are that good.
Talent pool size has increased, yes. A 5th today is better than a 5th 50 years ago. You can probably get away with saying that 5=10 and 10=20 if we're going that far back, but there is simply no way that 5=25.
I'm going to take this to the most micro level to demonstrate that it's incorrect. 1967 expansion - league doubles in size. Based on what you're telling us, a 5th in 1967 is only as good as a 10th in 1968. Why would that be? The talent pool didn't double in size - only the league did. And the ten best players before were the ten best after.
That is where the whole level of competition part of it factors is. To properly rank a player you would not only need to know what percentile they fell into, but also what the competition level was at the time.
Using the same VERY rough example I did before:
1960-1962: average difference between 5th and 10th: 87.9%
2008-2010: average difference between 25th and 50th: 86.9%
1968-1970: average difference between 10th and 20th: 85.3%
As we would expect, the O6 era is the most competitive, followed by current day, and then immediate post-expansion years.
Note: I would bet the differences would be even larger if we compared higher end 1st liners to lower end 1st liners or even 2nd liners (the numbers above compare the higher end 1st liners (72nd percentile) to about average 1st liners (45th percentile).
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