ATD 2011 Draft Thread III
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02-07-2011, 04:29 PM
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Regina, SK
Originally Posted by
I think his point is that all the percentage differences are around 85%, yet the number of positions differences keeps growing, so a position difference lower down is less than an equal position difference higher up.
Someone who finishes
1st, 5th, 5th, 5th and 9th
is better than someone who finishes
5th, 5th, 5th, 5th and 5th
because the difference between 1st and 5th is greater than the difference between 5th and 9th, even though they're both four spots apart.
In theory, in the exact same seasons, with all things being equal, yes, the guy who was 1st once and 9th another time would have done better on the aggregate (i.e. maybe he finishes 25 points ahead of 5th when he's 1st, but just 12 points behind 5th when he's 9th) - but I also don't think that was the point he was trying to make at all... at least I hope not. What an awful thing to argue about !
Originally Posted by
The 5th and 10th O6 spots were completely chosen at random just to use as an example. The spots for the other eras are 5th and 10th with an adjustment for bigger league size. This way they are comparing the same percentile rank of 1st line forwards.
If this study were to really work, one would have to do a large amount of comparisons like the one I did above. Obviously comparing 5th and 10th alone tells us nothing.
All in all, it's too big a project for me to actually do, so we might as well stop talking about it. Although, I think in theory it would work.
I don't think it would. You need to compare everything to a known value and not change the goalposts year by year. I could select random placements from different generations too, and show that they are all exactly 70% away from eachother but I have better things to do - like pick my nose.
Probably the best thing you can do is put it into practice. Next time you need to compare your player to someone else's, try out what you're saying. I think it would be a mess. When you're done that, try using a comparison to #2 as a benchmark. You'll like it a lot better, I reckon.
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