Playoff Odds Tracking / Who to Root For
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02-14-2011, 12:45 PM
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Originally Posted by
It goes to show how valuable games in hand are. Now I admit that you have to win those games but let's keep in mind that as of Monday February 7th (one week ago) the Kings sat in eighth place. The Kings then went 2-0-1 earning five out of a possible six points and now sit in ninth. A great way to look at the standings is on the
I heart Quisp (a lot - it's daily reading for me) and I think this is one way to take the stress out of it, but that level of analysis is really unneeded when you have spotsclubstats.com's weighted method available to you.
sportsclubstats "knows" each team's upcoming schedule, and their opponents record. It uses that to model out how the teams will finish, and you can look through all of their past years archives to see how effective it's been (it's been highly accurate).
At the moment, it's projecting the Kings to wind up around 6th in the west:
. A 15-9-2 record will get the Kings 97 points which should plop them right around #6.
Here's their method explained:
"Sports Club Stats calculates each team’s odds of making the playoffs, how each upcoming game will impact those odds, and how well they have to finish out to have a shot. It knows the season schedule and scores for past games. Each night it grabs any new scores from the internet and simulates the rest of the season by randomly picking scores for each remaining game. The weighted method takes the opponents record and home field advantage into account when randomly picking scores, so the better team is more likely to win.
The 50/50 method (you can view this by clicking 50/50 in the upper left) gives each opponent an equal chance of winning each game. Both methods let an appropriate percent of games end in a tie or go into overtime in leagues where that matters. When it’s finished "playing" all the remaining games it applies the league’s tie breaking rules to see where everyone finished. It repeats this random playing out of the season million of times (try it yourself), keeping track of how many "seasons" each team finishes where. Finally it updates this page with the new results for you to read with your morning coffee."
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