Seguin back to Junior?
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02-16-2011, 01:26 AM
Sidney the Kidney
Party like it's 2009
Join Date: Jun 2009
Originally Posted by
There is a significant difference in the typical development curves of big forwards versus average-sized forwards. You also can't point to the extreme outlier and say "That's who Seguin is going to be" because, well, Thornton is the outlier.
Here are the top ten forwards who spent their 18-year-old season in the NHL and averaged 0.35 PPG or less (minimum 50 GP, 1990 on):
Tyler Seguin: 52 GP, 9-9-18
Patrik Stefan: 72 GP, 5-20-25
Vincent Lecavalier: 82 GP, 13-15-28
Ryan O'Reilly: 81 GP, 8-18-26
Dainius Zubrus: 68 GP, 8-13-21
Alexander Burmistrov: 57 GP, 5-12-17
Jiri Tlusty: 58 GP, 10-6-16
Petr Nedved: 61 GP, 10-16-16
Keith Primeau: 58 GP, 3-12-15
James Sheppard: 78 GP, 4-15-19
Again, assuming you understand bigger forwards tend to develop at a slower pace, you can exclude Lecavalier, Nedved and Primeau from the list. If you don't, there isn't much point in continuing to read this post.
At any rate, that's some dangerous company to be in at this point of Seguin's career I'd have to think Bruins management and fans were expecting a little more out of him than a player performing at the rate similar to that of several underwhelming draft picks; it was only a year ago many claimed him to be on the same level as or better than Hall.
The one thing I'll caution with the above stats is make sure you put them in the proper context. Namely, what kind of ice time have most of these rookies (not just listed, but rookies who performed in general) received in their first year?
Seguin's in the very odd situation where he just happened to be drafted by a deep team. Because of Toronto's folly, a team that wouldn't have been in a position to draft Seguin, was able to pick him 2nd overall. Consequently, unlike other high draft picks, the team that chose him didn't need him to log top six minutes as a rookie.
Adjustments to the NHL game aside, one of the key things that enables players to produce at an early age is playing time. Not just playing time, but playing time in important
situations. Most top picks go to teams with very little depth, and thus those top six minutes, as well as top unit PP minutes, are given to them, which in turn allows for an easier offensive transition to the next level.
If Seguin was playing 18 minutes a night, on a line with Boston's top two wingers, would his stats be as mediocre as they currently are? I'd go out on a limb and suggest that his numbers would be higher than what they are now.
That's not to suggest he'd be leading the NHL in rookie points, but that you have to also take into account not only the kind of ice time he gets, but which players he gets ice time with. It's an easier transition when you've got top line players passing and receiving passes from you, than it is if you're on a line primarily with two players who are career 3rd or 4th liners for a reason.
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