ATD 2011 Draft Thread V
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02-20-2011, 07:31 AM
I voted for Kodos
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: West Egg, New York
I'm very pleased to select Frederickson here. We wanted to start our 2nd line at this point and with a large number of possibilities on the board as the pick approached, I did some feverish research to narrow down my preferences. I have to admit that I knew very little about Frederickson, myself, before putting him through the wringer to see what I could squeeze out, but after researching Frederickson and comparing him to a number of his undrafted contemporaries from out west (I think western forwards are probably the best value at this point, though with Keats and Frederickson now gone, that is changing rapidly), I became convinced that Frank was the best of the bunch. I am also pleased to have a chance to maybe fill in some of the blanks about a great player who has remained relatively faceless thus far in the ATD process.
I'm going to start with a statistical analysis. Jarek will have to forgive me for using Duke Keats as the foil in this analysis, but I did it before Keats was selected on the assumption that I would end up having to choose between them. Don't worry...this is not slanderous to Keats, but I think the comparison is fairly enlightening, because Keats is a guy about whom a lot more is known. I will also use a specific system for "converting" split-league scoring finishes into their modern equivalent, which I believe is the best and fairest method available to us.
- I start off by only evaluating top-5 finishes in goals, assists and points. I think this fairly reflects the fact that scoring talent was split fairly evenly (and I believe it was) between the east and west during this era.
- For top-5 split-league finishes, in converting them to a modern equivalent, I use the following system:
(highest finish x 2 ) - 1
(second highest finish x 2)
(third highest finish x 2) -1
(fourth highest finish x 2)
(fifth highest finish x 2) -1
This done to mathematically represent the fact that, for example, a 1st place finish in a split-league scenario can realisitically represent either a 1st or a 2nd place finish in a consolidated format. A 2nd place finish can be either 3rd or 4th place, etc. I round up for the highest scoring finish, round down for the second highest, round up for the third highest, etc. I think this is the most rational system possible, though granularity based on known facts must also enter the equation at some point.
Ok...onto the statistical analysis. Jarek will again have to forgive me, but Duke Keats is really the perfect foil to Frederickson for a variety of reasons. They were born within three months of each other, both played their best years out west and competed against one another during the final two seasons of the western leagues after the PCHA folded in 1924, everybody migrated to the WCHL for the next season, the WCHL renamed itself the WHL in 1925 and then collapsed, itself, after the 25-26 season. Both men have one superdominant season out west - 21-22 for Keats and 22-23 for Frederickson. Both men, at the age of 31, also came over to the newly consolidated NHL and played with varying levels of success. At any rate, I hope everyone will recognize that the following comparison is not an attempt at competition with jarek, but rather simply the most apt comparison available.
Frank Frederickson's top-5 scoring placements - with modern conversions:
[3rd (20-21), 4th (21-22), 1st (22-23), 3rd (23-24) -- PCHA years] ; [3rd (24-25) -- WCHL] ; [5th (26-27) -- consolidated NHL] :
modern equivalent: 1st, 5th, 5th, 6th, 6th, 7th
[4th (20-21), 2nd (21-22), 1st (22-23), 2nd (23-24) -- PCHA years] ; [3rd (26-27), 8th (28-29) -- consolidated NHL] :
modern equivalent: 1st, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 8th, 8th
[1st (20-21), 3rd (21-22), 1st (22-23), 2nd (23-24) -- PCHA years] ; [5th (24-25) -- WCHL] ; [4th (26-27) -- consolidated NHL] :
modern equivalent: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 9th
Frederickson's scoring record seems to indicate that he was a fairly balanced scorer, with a stronger emphasis on playmaking than goalscoring. His PCHA finishes of 1st, 2nd, 2nd in assists are pretty much validated by his 3rd place placement in assists during his first NHL season. His points more of less follow his assists record, and the PCHA dominance (including the 22-23 season in which he roflstomped the league, scoring 55 points when the 2nd place finisher, Mickey MacKay, put up 40) is pretty well validated by his 4th place points finish in his first consolidated NHL season. It is, on the whole, I think a pretty impressive resume for an offensive center at this point in the draft.
Duke Keats' top-5 scoring placements - with modern conversions:
[1st (21-22), 4th (22-23), 5th (23-24), 2nd (24-25), 4th (25-26) -- WCHL and WHL years] ; [10th (26-27) -- consolidated NHL] :
modern equivalent: 1st, 4th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th
[1st (21-22), 4th (22-23), 2nd (23-24) -- WCHL and WHL years] ; [8th (26-27), 7th (27-28) -- consolidated NHL] :
modern equivalent: 1st, 4th, 7th, 7th, 8th
[1st (21-22), 2nd (22-23), 3rd (23-24), 4th (24-25) -- WCHL and WHL years] ; [9th (26-27), 10th (27-28) -- consolidated NHL] :
modern equivalent: 1st, 4th, 5th, 8th, 9th, 10th
I was a bit shocked by Keats' scoring record because the book on him is that he was a brainy playmaking pivot, but the numbers tell a different story. I find it odd that Keats would have this reputation when he only placed top-5 in assists in three out of five seasons spent out west. Anyway, the Duke seems to have been a fairly balanced scorer, as well, but with more of an emphasis on goalscoring than playmaking.
Comparing the results shows pretty plainly, I think, that Frederickson was the superior offensive player. He was the better playmaker by a fairly wide margin and the better goalscorer by a smaller margin. Frederickson's very high level of play in his first NHL season (which saw him finish 3rd in Hart voting) is also pretty telling, and should make it clear that his dominance out west was not compiled against "soft" competition. Keats would also have scoring success in his first two seasons in the NHL, but nothing on the level of Frederickson's 26-27 performance.
A closer look at both players' super dominant seasons out west is also enlightening. Frederickson's big season was 22-23 when he crushed the PCHA scoring race with 55 points with Mickey MacKay in second place at 40 points, an undrafted in 3rd, Frank Foyston in 4th , an undrafted in 5th and an underrated guy (who I also compared numerically to Frederickson) who will be drafted very soon in 6th. Keats' big 21-22 season in the WCHL is rather less convincing. The Duke scored 55 points vs. a second place finish of 33 points, but all of the other players on the leaderboard are undrafteds, and the best of the bunch won't be taken for another hundred picks, or so. Now I realize that using ATD draft position as a barometer of offensive prowess is a
shady form of analysis, but I think the difference in competition is quite clear in this case.
At any rate, going by the numbers, Frederickson beats Keats pretty handily, especially in playmaking. I'll leave Duke Keats alone now. The rest of what I have on Frederickson is descriptive newspaper clippings which should help to flesh out who he was as a player and a person.
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