ATD 2011 Draft Thread VI
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02-25-2011, 03:15 AM
I voted for Kodos
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: West Egg, New York
that's a bit unfair. First of all, what's wrong with three top-10s in goals? Secondly, the years where he was top-10 in total goals but not in ES, his ES ranking would have been very close to 10th, certainly top-20. For a guy in the post-euro era, that is very solid no matter what angle you take the knife to it.
Well, let's just take a look.
93-94: 15th goals, 5th PP goals, ES goals not in top-20
94-95: 18th goals, ES goals not in top-20
95-96: 7th goals, 2nd PP goals, 10th ES goals
96-97: 1st goals, 1st ES goals
97-98: 6th goals, 12th PP goals, 5th ES goals
98-99: 15th goals, 18th PP goals, 17th ES goals
00-01: 19th goals, 7th PP goals, ES goals not in top-20
01-02: 8th goals, 7th PP goals, 11th ES goals
02-03: 10th PP goals, ES goals not in top-20
03-04: 10th goals, 2nd PP goals, ES goals not in top-20
...and that's the end of Tkachuk's peak. So you are mostly right (except for 03-04), but you nevertheless overstate the point. He is one of the most unbalanced powerplay-heavy goalscorers in modern times. Outside of Tkachuk's three top-10 ES goalscoring seasons, he only has an additional two top-20 finishes. His complete ES goalscoring track record is 1st, 5th, 10th, 11th, 17th. While the peak is certainly nice, it's not all
impressive around pick #300, and as I said, there were players (even powerforwards types who can play the same role as Tkachuk) taken in the 500+ pick range of ATD 2010 who were, when everything is taken into account (speed, playmaking, defense, playoffs), just as good at even strength.
Keith Tkachuk averaged about 70% powerplay icetime during his prime. If you're putting him on an ATD second unit, you're slashing that icetime by about two thirds, and throwing out a large portion of his offensive value. At this point, especially in a 40 team draft where you can't hide him on a second line behind two better offensive players at even strength, I think Tkachuk has already become overrated, likely because he was on a Milt Dunnell Cup winner last year.
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