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03-03-2011, 02:03 PM
  #48
rban*
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 2,894
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It's irrelevant that he is playing on the 3rd pairing. That's just a reflection of a deep team. He may be overpaid for a 3rd pair guy, but is paid about right for a Top 4.

What IS relevant is whether or not he is capable of playing well in a Top 4 role. He doesnt even have to ANCHOR one of the top 2 pairings .. even if Prongs and Timo do the anchoring and he complements them well, that is sufficient.

On a contending team with a good defense corps, a Top 4 Dman always gets at least 3.5 and often over 4 mil. Check Brad Stuart of Wings, any of Hamhuis/Ballard/Salo/Bieksa of the Nucks, Hjalmarrson of Hawks. Three point five to four point five seems to be the range, which makes the median 4 mil.

Why am I pretending he's a Top 4 ? Cuz he most probably will be soon. Odds are one of Coburn or Carle will leave, with probably Carle being the departee.

Which would make him a Top 4 partner of either Prongs or Timo. Since the Timo-Coburn pairing seems to be a long standing one, Vegas odds point to Prongs-Mesz.

My advice? Forget he's third pairing. Consider his potential as a Top 4. THEN look at his salary/cap hit.

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