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03-06-2011, 03:21 PM
  #192
BaseballCoach
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Quote:
Originally Posted by angry pirate View Post
What's to say we have Tinordi in the NHL for 7 years? What's to say this unknown first round pick ever makes the NHL let alone 7 years worth. Tinordi is not expected to step into the NHL right away by the sounds of things.

If we're going to make assumptions why can't we assume we'll be able to resign Penner to a 5 year deal?
Give me a freakin break.

Did you think I don't know that Tinordi and the 1st round pick are only POTENTIALS? No, I knew that. But someone made the straight Tinordi to Penner comparison, saying Tinordi has only a CHANCE to make it as a good NHLer while Penner is already there.

My point in replying is that first of all, it is not just Tinordi that should be compared, but TWO prospects. Second, you have to multiply the percentage chance of one of them making it by the NUMBER OF YEARS we get to have them.

So let's say Tinordi and Firstpick each have a 25% chance of making it to Penner's level. Well, that's a weighted average of 3.5 years of good player versus 1.25 years of good player. Plus there is a good chance that some of the 3.5 years will come at a much cheaper salary to boot.

See what I mean now?

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