Francois Gagnon: Tinordi and 1st round round draft pick for Penner
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03-06-2011, 07:27 PM
Join Date: Feb 2009
Originally Posted by
Give me a freakin break.
Did you think I don't know that Tinordi and the 1st round pick are only POTENTIALS? No, I knew that. But someone made the straight Tinordi to Penner comparison, saying Tinordi has only a CHANCE to make it as a good NHLer while Penner is already there.
My point in replying is that first of all, it is not just Tinordi that should be compared, but TWO prospects. Second, you have to multiply the percentage chance of one of them making it by the NUMBER OF YEARS we get to have them.
So let's say Tinordi and Firstpick each have a 25% chance of making it to Penner's level. Well, that's a weighted average of 3.5 years of good player versus 1.25 years of good player. Plus there is a good chance that some of the 3.5 years will come at a much cheaper salary to boot.
See what I mean now?
I think everyone gets that it's 2 prospects for Dustin Penner. My point was that your picking arbitrary numbers for how long these prospects will be guaranteed to play for Montreal. Making a second assumption that they will make the NHL at all. And then proceed to follow it up by assuming that Penner leaves next year. You picked and chose your data making your results very self serving.
Not to mention that the factors
(Time we have Penner vs Time we have Tinordi and Prospect X) (Salary)
that you used to come to your conclusion are really only one small part of a much larger equation.
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