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03-07-2011, 03:30 PM
dire wolf
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Join Date: May 2006
Location: Cali
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Originally Posted by LoveDaSwords View Post
Here's an interesting statistical look at how important faceoffs are:
There's a flaw in their analysis, but I think it generally supports what I've been saying. FO% is a factor, but not as big as people say. Also, neutral zone and offensive zone FO's basically don't matter. So, when we look at the FO% of the team or a particular player for the entire night, it's not particularly instructive. Obviously (and as I've conceded many times), specific FO's are very important -- such as in your own zone on a PK situation, and it's nice to have at least one very good FO man. It's much less important that all of your centers be very good at FO's, since most of them don't matter that much.

The flaw in the analysis is the conclusion that upgrading from a 50% FO guy to a 60% FO guy will result in 3-4 extra wins in a season. This is flawed because (1) you can't guarantee that the 60% guy will take all of your critical FO's (which they assume), (2) there are only about 3 guys in the league who have FO% near 60%, and (3) most importantly, the 60% guy needs to be the equal of the 50% center in all other aspects of the game. In other words, replacing a 60-point, 50% center with a 30-point 60% center will not improve the team (not to mention their defensive play).

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