: Injury Report:
Chris Kreider (Broken Jaw; Out 4-6 Weeks)
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03-11-2011, 05:02 PM
Join Date: Sep 2008
Originally Posted by
Stat surfing doesn't make a point.
Kreider has a physical package that most players don't have. And he was going to improve his production from the year prior before he broke his jaw.
And he improved his overall game.
He's going pro next year, he will be in the NHL next year. And he will not be relegated to 3rd-4th line duties, either.
Kreider's production from a defensive role, not on the top line, is not an issue. Things work differently at BC then they do at Wisconsin. Stepan was afforded the opportunity to be a go-to guy. Atkinson, a Senior, is the go-to guy at BC. At BC seniority matters.
Kreider was invited to play for the men's USA team at the World Championship at age 18. How many 2009 draftees were invited to play in that tournament?
He was a PPG at the WJC and MVP of the Bronze Medal game. MVP at the Bean Pot. Scored countless big goals both last year including a big goal in the Gold Medal game at the WJC last year, more down the stretch last year, and still yet more this year in big game situations.
But, let's harp on the fact he doesn't have overwhelming, "dominating" stats.
His stats are not "pedestrian". 20+ points in an NCAA season is not bad, at all, from a freshman on a stacked National Championship team coming out of prep HS. And still yet, not bad at all from a sophomore playing more of a two way roll again on a stacked National Championship caliber team.
Of the players drafted in 2009, that are at the NCAA level, how are they doing? 2010 draftees? 2011 draft eligible players?
Stat surfing is not helping make any point. Comparing stats to other guys in different years also, does not help make any point. Each situation is unique.
The progress in his overall game since being drafted is what matters.
EDITED: took all unneccessary stuff out.
I agree completely that "progress" is what matters most in evaluating a prospect. If I were "stat surfing" and making outrageous projections, you'd be right to correct me.
I'm not making outrageous predictions, however. I'm simply saying that based on Kreider's stats, he hasn't proven yet that he's a shoo in step into the NHL and score 20 or more goals for the Rangers next year.
That's a very conservative statement. I'm not even saying it can't happen. I'm just saying it isn't likely to happen... next year. This statement would be true of almost any prospect regardless of stats.
We Ranger fans have a tendancy to expect too much from our prospects. I've always tried to temper those expectations and have patience with young players. We expect too much, and then we often turn on our young players too quickly.
I've argued with other Ranger fans for years on this site and others that we were expecting too much from players like Brendl, Montoya, Sanguinetti and Gilroy. Most of those arguments were based on stats. My Gilroy debates were classic... I was called a fool in every which way... largely because I was relying on stats and ignoring his unique circumstances. Right. Conversely, I was arguing with fans who wanted to dump Dubi & Arte last summer.
It seems now that a sizeable group of fans here fully expect Kreider to star for the Rangers next year. I'm saying it will take time, and I'm using historical stats to back me up. The fact that nobody has been able to produce a single example of a player with stats similar to Kreider's making the kind of leap most of us are expecting suggests it might be the first time in NHL history. But hey, the Rangers are blessed, right?
Please don't think I'm down on Kreider. I love the fact that he's a Ranger prospect. I love the fact that he's a two way player. My only argument is that it might take time for him to become a proficient goal scorer on the NHL level, and we should not depend on it happening next year. That's not an outrageous statement to make.
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