Thread: GBU: Chokejob
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03-16-2011, 12:53 PM
joshjull's Avatar
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Hamburg,NY
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Originally Posted by jlr View Post
70% is at least an objective number based on unbiased criteria. It's not perfect, but it's at least based on facts.

Your opinions is exactly that. An opinion. And it looks like you're saying they have about a 50% chance of making the playoffs, but 70% is somehow ********? I don't see how 20% makes the difference between an acceptable opinion and complete ********.
I absolutely love stats but that website (if its the one I'm thinking of) is utterly useless at predicting future outcomes.

It uses a model that can't account for many factors that impact a team's success or failure.

Primarily the human element. Things like.....

-trades (how that player reacts to being traded + how the rest of the team reacts to that new player, does he develop chemistry)
-injuries (who gets hurt, how long are the out, are they the same when they return, etc.)
-how call ups play filling in for injuries
-a player having a tough season finally getting his game on track or a player having a good season falling apart late in the year.
-a rookie that was playing well suddenly hitting the wall as many rookies do or the reverse a rookie finally getting it
-how a team mentally reacts to the playoff race tightening
-how fatigue impacts players during the grind of the stretch run.
-a coach finally getting some line combos that work or having line combos that were working stop clicking and not being able to get that back.
-coach decides to change the system he was using and how the team reacts to it.

I could go on.

That site just reacts to what happens and using the past spits out guesses on the future. It in no way saw our current run happening. In fact, quite the opposite, when Roy went down that site essentially wrote us off. I use that to make my point because what we have done during this time frame is not overly amazing. Nor is it happening because of the play of 1 or 2 players that are playing on a level off the charts. So its not as if our current run into a playoff spot is something amazing to behold. But according to that website it is.

I thought it was ridiculous in November/December when you and others used that site as a reason to have a firesale and tank the season. Since it said we had a very small percentage chance (at one point single digits) of making the playoffs. And I think its ridiculous now for anyone to think we have a 70% chance of making the playoffs due to that sites predictions. We could start to struggle again for a variety of reasons and in short order be on the outside looking in. But accrording to that site a few games ago that was highly unlikely.

Last edited by joshjull: 03-16-2011 at 01:28 PM.
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