2011 Playoff Push Discussion Part 2
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03-29-2011, 07:22 PM
Join Date: Apr 2008
Really bored so just gonna put my own little analysis of the push in here
2- Red Wings 44-22-10 98 pts (6 GR)
3- Sharks 44-23-9 97 pts (6 GR)
4- Coyotes 41-25-11 93 pts (5 GR) hypothetically if Ana wins the 2 GIH they hop them
5- Kings 43-26-6 92 pts (7 GR) One game in hand +1 pt. Plays anaheim x2
6- Preds 41-25-10 92 pts (6 GR) Not uncatchable. they lose once/we win, we hop
7- Ducks 43-28-5 91 pts (6 GR)
8- Hawks 41-26-8 90 pts (7 GR) Have the GIH, but a loss tonight would keep em below us by 1 pt
- Flames 38-28-11 87 pts (5 GR) Would need CHI or ANA to lose all 6/7 games+win all 5 of their games
- Stars 38-26-10 86 pts (8 GR) Play anaheim once, sit at 37% chance to make the playoffs
Looking at the standings, if enough of those teams lose regulation games at the right time, and we win ours, we could potentially wind up in the 4th seed.
But as far as actually making the playoffs, the Ducks are very close. Calgary and Dallas are must wins. Win those games, and we essentially set the playoff teams (looking at Dallas' schedule it's almost a guarantee they'll lose the games that would eliminate them). Calgary can't afford to lose to us. Actually if Chicago wins tonight, it might be the statistical nail in the coffin. Even if they beat us. One win from us or Chicago eliminates them.
Ana sched: CGY, SJS, DAL, SJS, LAK, LAK
DAL sched: PHO (4th), SJS (3rd), LAK (5th), ANA (7th, looking to rise and shut DAL out), CBJ, COL, COL, MIN
CHI sched: BOS, CBJ, TBL, MON, STL, DET, DET (double header with wings could affect Ducks final position)
LAK sched: EDM, VAN, DAL, SJS, PHO, ANA, ANA
PHO sched: DAL, COL, LAK, SJS, SJS (another potentially beneficial x2 header)
NAS sched: VAN, COL, DET, ATL, CBJ, STL (they've got it the easiest.)
Dallas can't afford to lose four as that would only give them 94 points, which isn't enough. They don't have any games against Chicago, so I really think that (especially if the Ducks beat them in regulation) it's going to be a slow and painful crushing of Dallas' playoff hopes.
Didn't bother including Calgary. As it's one game away from no longer being theoretically and logically impossible.
Chicago is a bit sketchy. Easy (?) games against STL and CBJ. We don't know what kind of help we'll get from the teams in the East. Detroit will be a challenge for them. I don't know how it'll turn out based on their (DET) play, but it's the last two games of the year, they're gonna be looking to start the playoffs pumped up.
Phoenix is a bit tough to catch, but we have two games in hand over them, and if those GIH are wins, we end up with one more point than them. We want them to beat LA and Dallas, but we can pray that Colorado and San Jose abuse them in regulation, and maybe we'll move up a spot (with enough wins)
L.A we can pass by all means. Even amount of GP, one point lower. We play them twice. If those games were today/tomorrow, we could go 1-0-1 against them and actually take the higher seed (by virtue of the tiebreaker). They've probably (with the exception of Edmonton) got the toughest schedule. Vancouver, the #1 seed, Dallas, a team desperate for points, SJS, a team looking to steal the #2 spot from Detroit, and us, a team that wants to make up for last year's embarrassing showing and get as a high a seed as possible (and they have two games against us). It helps us that the Kings are suffering through some key injuries, most notably Anze Kopitar (who is out 6 weeks and will miss round 1). Ducks could take serious advantage of that, and the last 2 games could spell the difference between several spots.
Nashville, unfortunately has the easiest schedule. Not a lot to say here, we just have to hope that teams out of the picture still want glory.
^all of that is under the assumption that the 3-point game game trend ends.
I would say at this point the Ducks don't miss the playoffs. And my prediction is they take the 6th seed.
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