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04-06-2011, 06:44 PM
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Originally Posted by wolfgaze View Post
There is no clear-cut way of defining Best Pick Available.... It's not a concrete term by any means...

is the BPA the player with the highest ceiling?
is the BPA the player most likely to reach his potential independent of his overall ceiling?
is the BPA the player with the lowest bust potential?
is the BPA the most skilled player at the time of the draft?

It's not that clear.... 18 year olds have different development curves so the most skilled player at the time of the draft isn't necessarily the draft pick with the highest ceiling/potential.

Carl Hagelin for example... In an interview with a friend of his from Sweden, his friend says Carl had a grown spurt when he was 19 and his legs just got massive and that's when his skating really kicked into high gear.... No doubt Hagelin (5th rounder) would have been a late 1st/early 2nd round pick if the scouts had any inkling that he would develop into the forward that he is today.
Agreed. Plus, even when you decide what the definition of BPA is, there's going to be significant disagreement about who is a better player at the margins. Players are just too close to rank numerically.

I think a far more realistic approach is BPA by "tier." Clearly, in 2010, Hall and Seguin were of a class unto themselves. Picking between them was a matter of preference. They were the "tier A" players in the draft. Picking BPA means picking one of the players in the highest "tier" available. Which one of them you took was simply a matter of organizational preference.

Essentially, BPA is a great concept for fans to champion, but in practice, it's far too gray.

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