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04-30-2011, 01:22 AM
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Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Los Angeles
Country: Ireland
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Originally Posted by JT Dutch View Post
... Here is a VERY interesting and telling analysis of the scoring chances in the series. Now, everyone has their own ideas of what constitutes a scoring chance, but what's important to me is that there's a consistent definition that's being adhered to when tallying these up.

This is from Copper and Blue, and whether or not you're an Oiler fan, you should immediately bookmark this site if you haven't already. They're doing some cutting-edge stuff over here and they link to other guys doing more cutting-edge stuff.

Some things I found interesting:

- For those who say Doughty had a bad series aside from game 2, the scoring chances for and against say otherwise. Doughty was the only King who managed to balance his books (27 for, 26 against) at even strength. Well, Moller and Ponikarovsky did too, but within MUCH smaller sample sizes.

- Richardson (23 for, 24 against) and Simmonds (20 for, 21 against) were the best regular forwards the Kings had in both categories.

- Johnson (14 for, 35 against) pretty much capsulizes what we have all become aware of with him. He's not defensively sound. Will he ever be? Or is a move to forward something that will be in his future?

- Parse (2 for, 10 against) probably shouldn't have been brought back into the lineup.

- Joe Thornton (31 for, 17 against), the "playoff choker", was probably the Sharks' best player in the series.

- Quick deserves his share of credit for keeping things close, despite seeing almost 50% more scoring chances than his counterparts, Niemi and Niittymaki. Or does Niemi deserve his share of blame for allowing the Kings to come so close despite the discrepancy in chances? It's likely a little bit of both.

At any rate, check this out.
This is a fascinating site, but I had a few questions.

First, I'm not quite sure how to read these charts. I poked around a bit on the site for a methodology post that explained them but I didn't see it. Could you point me toward something like that?

Second, do we know how the Kings' playoff performance compared to the regular season? Did the regular season games feature this same disparity in scoring chances, particularly with Jack Johnson?

Third, is there a site that tracks this sort of data for each player? If their argument here is that Johnson got killed in this series, I'll buy that. But I'd like to see his numbers for a whole season because the historian in me needs to see change over time to understand what's happening.

Fourth, what other sites like this do you have? I'm interested in these kinds of statistical breakdowns, but I'm not even sure what to be looking for. Is there a standard methodology shared by analysts league-wide, or is this pretty much the invention of these guys?

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