The GM debate
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05-05-2011, 09:09 AM
Join Date: Jun 2006
Originally Posted by
Just stop with the excuses....pro sports is about winning. After he got swept in the Finals with a team he inherited and tweaked nicely, what exactly has he done to even get CLOSE to winning a championship?
Yes he's drafted nicely for the last 5 years since he lucked into Ovy. That Ovy gift was the only thing that saved him long ago....essentially...that was his lotto ticket.
Look, I'm not sure I support he really be fired now, but I'm also not a mindless company man who can't see what's in front of my eyes...
We had a similar discussion on drafting a number of years ago on the ESPN board. The premise was that the Caps drafted well, because of larger overall numbers of 2nd and lower round picks. Even some on ESPN who knew hockey very well were not aware of this:
I compiled numbers on the Cap's drafting over a number of years, and here's what shook out:
Of some 18 - 1st round picks, 8 went on to play in the NHL for at least 2 years.
Of some 68 - 2nd round and lower picks, 16 went on to play in the NHL for at least 2 years.
Now on its face, 18 is the greater number, right? It's twice the physical number of first rounders.
But suppose you're in Atlantic City, would you rather have odds of 8 of 18, or 16 of 68? The former, of course.
And what I found as I examined the players was after you factor in the 2nd round picks, the number of players who make it into the NHL drops dramatically in each successive round.
Except for a team like the Wings, this standard is pretty much the norm for drafting. Hence the old adage that lower draft choices are a long-shot in the NHL: far, far more fail, than make it.
Now, someone (CStanton, I believe) suggested that we could write the names of 1st rounders on small papers and place them on a dart board, and a monkey throwing darts at the names could do as well as GMGM.
Was this inaccurate? No. Hilarious, yes!
The real test of a GM: acquiring previously drafted (by other organizations) talent.
And I'm sorry... but I've seen too many KritchSTIFF'S, Mironovs, Cote's, Sykora's, Kiwi's, Marshall's, etc, etc.
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