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05-05-2011, 06:20 PM
  #21
Valrico Gold
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But enough of all that.
The problem at hand is figuring out how this Kentucky Derby will be run, and who'll cross the line first.

I don't think there is any question that their will be lots of pace in the race.

5 Decisive Moment
6 Comma to the Top
7 Pants On Fire
13 Mucho Macho Man
14 Shakleford
17 Soldat
18 Uncle Mo
......all display a close to, or on the pace style, and will be vying for position into the first turn. Even 4 Stay Thirsty has shown speed in the past and may try to move up early for position.
The question for these guys is who will be able to survive the pace, and remain in contention at the 1/4 pole?
I think Pants, Mucho. Shakleford, Soldat, and Mo should still be there entering the lane.

The question then becomes.....who will last to the finish, and who will try to get them?

8 Dialed In is the logical closer. He's done nothing wrong, is well prepared, and has the connections. My only knock on him is the lack of experience, which is huge in a circus/rodeo race like this. It requires a tough horse to win this. BTW, he's also won over the track.

12 Santiva is a little guy who has also won over the track. He'll have the jump on Dialed In, but needs to improve dramatically.

I would normally never consider 15 Midnight Interlude, but Baffert has him firing amazing works over the track!

19 Nehro is my darling horse. His last two preps were fantastic, but the 19 post with his lack of experience will hurt him.

My pick?????
I think one of the speeds holds on.
I'm undecided between 14 Shakleford, and 17 Soldat.
They are both well spotted to sit outside the pace and move when ready. They are both well prepped.
I sort of question Soldat's desire to want the distance, but have confidence Shakleford will like it.

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