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05-10-2011, 09:01 PM
Can't Beat Him
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Washington, DC
Originally Posted by
fair enough. I guess I didn't have perspective in that statement either then, eh?
Haha, well, it's tough. The big issue with evaluating success rates between particular teams and against the league average is that we're talking extremely small sample sizes. Unfortunately, there's no way around it when we're focusing on a particular front office regime--as they're only around for a few years to two decades.
As we're talking statistics and sample sizes, it's important to consider the role that luck plays. What if Blackburn didn't hurt himself? I doubt then that we take Al Montoya. Maybe we take Smid, and then pass on Sanguinetti a few years later. What if Cherepanov is still alive? Luck absolutely plays a factor here.
With that said, it wasn't luck that turned Hugh Jessiman into a bust. It was a dumb pick at the time, one that looks even worse in retrospect. Was Montoya a smart pick? I'm not a fan of drafting goalies in the top ten. I didn't like the pick, and I think I've been proved right.
Bad luck coupled with a few questionable decisions has made our first round drafting into something of a horror show. It's a bit unfair to pin it
on poor decision making, I will grant that.
It's just pain.
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