ATD2011 Jim Coleman Semi: New Jersey Swamp Devils vs. Guelph Platers
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05-16-2011, 03:22 PM
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Regina, SK
Originally Posted by
Top 25 finishes:
1930: 18th in goals, 24th in points
1931: 20th in goals
1933: 7th in goals, 14th in points
1934: 15th in goals, 24 in assists, 16th in points
1935: 18th in goals, 4th in assists, 5th in points (only 4 points behind 1st)
1936: 20th in goals, 4th in assists, 9th in points
1937: 23rd in goals, 15th in assists, 16thin in points
1938: 22nd in assists, 23rd in points
Mine (don't have much time so hopefully I get it right):
Top 25 Finishes
82-83: 20th in goals, 23rd in points
83-84: 14th in goals (in 64 games)
4th in goals, 7th in points
89-90: 14th in goals
and two more finishes at 26-28 where he just missed for goals which probably count if we're comparing to top 25s from the 1930s anyways.
When you figure the difference between being 15-25th in offensive categories in the 30s compared to the 80s.. I think Ogrodnick is a better goal scorer at the very least.
I think using percentages works fine and I think if you don't like that, then doubling the placements is a reasonable starting point too. I also think that using points, and not goals, actually shows who the more capable offensive player is, although I can totally see why you'd want to do the latter for Ogrodnick.
Best 6 percentage seasons (outliers and creations removed of course):
Ogrodnick: 83 70 66 64 58 57
Lewis: 93 91 77 71 67 62
or, double Lewis' 6 best points finishes vs. Ogrodnick's raw*:
Ogrodnick: 7 23 44 48 48 58
Lewis: 12, 18, 28, 30, 32, 46
*this is a quick overview from a spreadsheet, it doesn't account for ties, it means that when Ogrodnick was 48th, for example, he may have actually been in a 4-way tie for 45th.
I would not hesitate to say that Lewis is a significantly better offensive player by any measure, plus he brings a lot more to the table in other areas.
But that's what "bargain basement" is about. You took him super late and Lewis is a deserving earlier pick.
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