ATD2011 Jim Coleman Semi: New Jersey Swamp Devils vs. Guelph Platers
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05-16-2011, 04:38 PM
Join Date: Jun 2010
Originally Posted by
I think using percentages works fine and I think if you don't like that, then doubling the placements is a reasonable starting point too. I also think that using points, and not goals, actually shows who the more capable offensive player is, although I can totally see why you'd want to do the latter for Ogrodnick.
Best 6 percentage seasons (outliers and creations removed of course):
Ogrodnick: 83 70 66 64 58 57
Lewis: 93 91 77 71 67 62
or, double Lewis' 6 best points finishes vs. Ogrodnick's raw*:
Ogrodnick: 7 23 44 48 48 58
Lewis: 12, 18, 28, 30, 32, 46
*this is a quick overview from a spreadsheet, it doesn't account for ties, it means that when Ogrodnick was 48th, for example, he may have actually been in a 4-way tie for 45th.
I would not hesitate to say that Lewis is a significantly better offensive player by any measure, plus he brings a lot more to the table in other areas.
But that's what "bargain basement" is about. You took him super late and Lewis is a deserving earlier pick.
So basically they are within what, 15% for the most part of one another?
Put another way in Lewis best season (34-35) if Ogrodnick was playing at 15% less capability than Lewis.. hell make it 20%, he would have scored 34-35 points compared to Lewis' 43.
Which would still have put him top 20 in that league.
This is the issue when looking at players from eras with so little competition that one hot streak can change you 10 placings in the standings. It skews so quickly compared to modern players with longer seasons etc. There is so little separation in the early years it makes it very difficult to compare scoring.
Yes, Lewis is a better overall player and worth the earlier pick, but Ogrodnick is not going to be "*cough2ndlineLWcough*" in this series in comparison - he can do the job that he was put there to do - put the puck in the net with regularity.
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