ATD2011 Jim Coleman Semi: New Jersey Swamp Devils vs. Guelph Platers
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05-16-2011, 05:20 PM
Join Date: Aug 2006
Originally Posted by
I think using percentages works fine and I think if you don't like that, then doubling the placements is a reasonable starting point too. I also think that using points, and not goals, actually shows who the more capable offensive player is, although I can totally see why you'd want to do the latter for Ogrodnick.
Best 6 percentage seasons (outliers and creations removed of course):
Ogrodnick: 83 70 66 64 58 57
Lewis: 93 91 77 71 67 62
or, double Lewis' 6 best points finishes vs. Ogrodnick's raw*:
Ogrodnick: 7 23 44 48 48 58
Lewis: 12, 18, 28, 30, 32, 46
*this is a quick overview from a spreadsheet, it doesn't account for ties, it means that when Ogrodnick was 48th, for example, he may have actually been in a 4-way tie for 45th.
I would not hesitate to say that Lewis is a significantly better offensive player by any measure, plus he brings a lot more to the table in other areas.
But that's what "bargain basement" is about. You took him super late and Lewis is a deserving earlier pick.
Keep in mind that Lewis was a pass-first player who played at a time when assists were given out much less liberally than after World War 2, so his points finishes will underrated him a tad. I'm also not entirely certain about the reasons to double scoring finishes between the 30s and 80s - yeah the 80s had more competition, but doubling seems a bit extreme IMO as the Europeans really hadn't come over en mass yet.
And of course, that's just regular season scoring. Lewis was an excellent defensive player and good playoff producer, while Ogrodnick was poor defensively and not very good in the playoffs.
Not to mention that Lewis is in his comfort zone - playmaker to a goalscoring center, while Ogrodnick is a triggerman without anyone to get him the puck in scoring position.
Last edited by TheDevilMadeMe: 05-16-2011 at
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