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05-18-2011, 08:38 AM
  #932
SmokeyClause
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OpenWheel View Post
I love the Locker pick. He's a player.

He made enough accurate throws to have a heck of a highlight reel. He CAN thread it. He makes enough off balance or running throws, or throws where he tries to put it in a spot where only his receiver can make a play that his touch looks worse then it is. The stats guys say his receivers had 20+ more drops then Gabbert's guys, and if they had only had 5 more drops, then Locker's percentage was almost the same. It was frustrating watching his highlights and trying to find his guys getting separation, because it was rarely there, but when a guy did, Locker usually got it to him. One scout said he had more completions over ten yards than under ten so it's a good arm.

Even if Palmer can't make him any more accurate then a guy he coached, Eli Manning (who is not accurate...) well, maybe Locker can only win one superbowl also, instead of multiples.

His accuracy gets an unfair rap. Some guys can make plays, I believe he'll be one of them. Good pick.
Every QB with a strong arm CAN make highlight reel throws. Even a blind man will eventually hit a bulls-eye. When you have a kid who has thrown 1,200 passes, you are going to find highlight reel plays in there somewhere. So you can disregard most highlight packages because they aren't likely to be representative of the athlete.

As for him being a 'player,' I guess I just don't understand what that means. I hear Gruden say it on MNF all the time, but its basically nonsensical praise and often a filler in the place of tangible attributes.

And "some guys make plays"? If he was truly a playmaker, why were his teams so bad? Wouldn't a playmaker just make plays? Despite that, his offense was never more than average at Washington. And it's not like he was playing against SEC defenses. Besides, in the NFL, playmakers are super talents. There are few, if any, average talents that are playmakers. The players who make plays are the super-talents like Peyton Manning, Andre Johnson, etc. Can't recall the last inaccurate passer that was considered a playmaker. I guess you could say Roethlisberger, though he was significantly more accurate than Locker at this stage. But like Favre, he was much more of a "risk-taker" than a playmaker. Which meant that for every play he made for his own team above what the average QB did, he made one for the other team above what the average QB did.

The issue with Locker is the issue I have with sports analysis. There's really very little in the way of tangible metrics that support him actually being a legitimate starter in the NFL. So fans of his just ignore those stats and call him a "player" or "leader" and talk about how gutsy he is and how much he wants to win. The problem with that analysis is everyone in the NFL was a "player" at college. They almost all have immense desires to win. And the aggregation of those tangibles and intangibles that made Jake Locker a mediocre QB in college stand to make him the same in the pros.

In the end, he might be a good NFL QB, though he'd have to buck so many trends in the league for that to happen. He'll likely just be a mediocre QB who looks good when his team looks good and bad when his team looks bad, just like almost every other QB in the league. So, in my mind, the Titans spent the 8th overall pick on a QB who'll end up just like most other quarterbacks in the league, including those who were 2nd day picks and undrafted players. In hockey parlance, they drafted a 3rd/4th line checker with their 8th overall pick. He could become Ryan Kesler and score 40 goals, but he's more likely to be Adam Hall.

And for what it's worth, I wouldn't have drafted Gabbert at 8 either. Newton is the only one I would have considered only because he has an amazing athletic ability and you might get 'Vick-lucky' with him and an 8th overall is more appropriate. Wouldn't have drafted him first overall though and would only consider him at 8.


Last edited by SmokeyClause: 05-18-2011 at 08:46 AM.
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