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05-22-2011, 12:06 PM
Talks to Goalposts
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Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Edmonton
Country: Canada
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Originally Posted by bsl View Post
I read the rest or your post to see if you could explain that statement. You did not.

I completely disagree with you and I would guess so do lots of others on this board.

Defending Habs drafting because we have drafted more third liners in the NHL than any other team is not going to cut it.

Except for Price at no. 5, and possibly PK, the Habs have not drafted a true star player since Roy, and Chelios. I love Saku, but he is not a star.

And we have not won a cup for 20 years precisely because we have not done that.

The argument here is really this: Have the Habs drafted well enough in the last 20 years to win a cup?

Answer: No.

Its simply a matter of the rules of smaller and larger numbers. Drafting a superstar is such an uncommon event that sheer random chance plays a bigger role. Even a good drafting team can only expect to do so on average of once every 3-5 years. You seem to suffer from the delusion that drafting works a deterministic process. It is not, outside the top of the draft, its matter of placing bets on which 18 year olds will improve enough to make the NHL. Most hockey skills however are linear, the process of becoming a good enough player to be an impact NHL player is largely the same as the process of becoming an NHL regular, involving developing the same skills. Thus looking at the process of finding NHLers is better measure of scouting skill because it is a similar process to finding stars and as a higher event process (a good team will find 1-2 NHLers per draft) luck plays a much smaller role and skill a larger. Its really just elementary statistics.

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