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06-07-2011, 10:56 AM
  #726
broadwayblue
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CM PUNK View Post
to get into the top 7-8 it will cost alot...the only reason to trade up into the 9-10 spot (besides obviously some slipping) would be if you felt 1 guy was clearly above the rest of that next 'group'. if you feel scheifele, mcneil, miller, bartschi, armia, and puempel are interchangable then you stay at 15 and take whoever is left...but if you think scheifele's potential separates him from the group then you might still look to move up to ensure that you get him.

and as far getting 'talent' and going with a high risk player. i have to question the upside potential of some of these high risk players. like with rocco, its not like other small players haven't been ranked high before. if everyone after #9 is 2nd and 3rd line talent and he is 1st line talent then wouldn't you think despite size he'd be ranked higher? I can see putting him lower than equal talents due to his size, but if his upside is really that much higher?
By some accounts he is one of the most talented players in the draft. So on talent alone he would go top 3. But if his size will prevent him from ever making it he has to drop. Just how far depends on how likely he is to bust.

Would you rather have a guy who is a 25% chance to be a 2nd liner, 55% chance to be a 3rd liner, and a 20% chance to bust....or a player who is a 20% chance to be a top 6 player and an 80% chance to bust? My numbers might be off a bit...but that's the general idea. Most people would rather draft a guy who is going to be an NHL player than one who probably won't.

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