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2011 NHL Entry Draft/Other Prospects (All NON-RANGERS Prospect Discussion - Part 3)
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06-07-2011, 06:04 PM
Join Date: Jul 2009
Originally Posted by
I would say:
Grimaldi: 15% chance of being a true first liner, 20% chance of being a second liner; 0% chance of being a third liner and 65% chance of total failure.
McNeill: 0% chance of being a first liner, 20% chance of being a second liner, 40% chance of being a third liner; 40% of being a total bust.
So that's the question: would you trade a 15% chance of getting a first liner for a 40% chance of getting a third liner. I wouldn't. I say go for the stars. We have plenty of third liners.
Everyone who thinks these odds are low needs to review past drafts. Half of all first rounders do not become even third liners. About half are fourth liners and minor leaguers.
And this is a weak draft, so you should expect most of the first rounders outside of the top-10 to fail to make the NHL at all or as anything more than a 4th liner.
based on those stats i agree with you...i'd rather take the 15% chance of being a 1st liner and 35% chance of being a top 6 over 20% chance of being a 2nd liner. only problem is that you are just pulling those stats out of the air and there is no way to quantify them for real, other than to prove you hate mcneil cause to say he has a 0% chance of being a top line player is laughable. i'm not gonna say its high but 0% come on.
i'm not disagreeing with your overall theory, but do think that you are understating the potential upside of anyone not named rocco BIG time to prove your point.
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